All Posts Tagged With: "rasmussen"
Of Polls, Pollsters, Pundits And Politicians
“Never Fool Yourself” Was Advice A Very Bright Statistician Told Me About Polling.
After weeks of intensive scrutiny and missteps, the glow around Sarah Palin has become light of flickering flames from blazes stoked by the main stream media. A Washington Post headline decrees she is now a drag on McCain.
When you burrow into the actual poll results McCain - Palin have have actually gained 3 points from 43% to 46% between September 22 to 29 while Obama has dropped from 52% to 50% among registered voters. Among likely voters it is Obama 48% to McCain’s 45%. Rasmussen polling has the race 51% to 44% anibg likely voters based on a 3-day rolling average.
About half of all registered voters said they were uncomfortable with the idea of McCain taking office at age 72, and 85 percent of those voters said Palin does not have the requisite experience to be president.
Nearly two-thirds of both independent men and women in a new Washington Post / ABC poll said Palin has insufficient experience to run the White House. For the first time half say Obama has the experience to be President.
More than two-thirds of voters in a Pew poll said they plan to watch the VP debate, far more than said they were going to turn on the vice presidential debate four years ago, and maybe a record. The expectations are that Biden, a six-term senator, will win: Voters by a 19-point margin think he will prove to be the better debater.
Weekend Political Poll Roundup and A Snicker
Never let your dog watch your food; never let the Congress watch your money - Barry Goldwater, Jr.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday-including the two days of post-debate polling-is unchanged. Barack Obama once again attracts 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This five-point advantage nearly matches Obama’s biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for three-days running. Rasmussen says Obama has 200 electoral votes and McCain 174. Colorado (9); New Mexico (5); New Hampshire (4); Nevada (5); Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are now all in the toss-up column. Clearly those 56 votes are pivotal. 55 other electors lean toward Obama and 53 are leaning toward McCain.
Gallup did not publish findings on Sunday. Obama lead by 5% in its Saturday polling. According to ZOGBY Obama won Friday’s debate by the narrowest of margins 44% to 41% who say McCain won. Rasmussen found Obama won the debate by 36% to 34% and 31% were not sure. While 16% said it was a tie. Women felt Obama won and men felt McCain did. Before the debate people felt Obama would win by a 4 to 3 margin. Obama/Biden leads 47.1% to McCain/Palin 45.9% in the “who would you vote for?” question.
PBS television personality Jim Lehrer won the debate by unexpectedly being fair and balanced. 76% say Lehrer was neutral. Seven percent (7%) thought he tried to help Obama, 3% thought he tried to help McCain and 14% were not sure.
Today, Barack Obama told Joe Biden to be less like Sarah Palin: “Stop talking to the press!” - Leno
Thirty-three percent of Likely Voters now favor the Wall Street ”bail out” plan while 32% are opposed and 35% are not sure. Just 49% understand that the government anticipates recovering a significant portion of the $700 billion when the assets purchased are resold. Those who understand that taxpayers will eventually get much of the money back support the bailout by a 2-to-1 margin. Narrow pluralities of both Obama supporters and McCain supporters favor the legislation and the reaction from liberals and conservatives are similarly mixed. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Investors support the plan while 31% are opposed.
In one of the most tumultuous weekend in college sports history nine of colleges top 25 football lost last weekend starting with Number 1 USC on Thursday night. Eleven won and five had a bye week.
Debate Changed Nothing
44% say Obama won: 41% say McCain did
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday-including the first day of post-debate polling-is unchanged. Barack Obama once again attracts 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This six-point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead yet and marks the first time he has held such a lead for two-days running. Rasmussen says Obama has 200 electoral votes and McCain 174. Colorado (9); New Mexico (5); New Hampshire (4); Nevada (5); Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are now all in the toss-up column. Clearly those 56 votes are pivotal. 55 other electors lean toward Obama and 53 are leaning toward McCain.
Gallup did not publish findings on Sunday. Obama led by 5% in its Saturday polling. According to ZOGBY Obama won Friday’s debate by the narrowest of margins 44% to 41% who say McCain won. While 16% said it was a tie. Women felt Obama won and men felt McCain did. Before the debate people felt PObama would win by a 4 to 3 margin. Obama/Biden leads 47.1% to McCain/Palin 45.9% in the “who would you vote for?” question.
McCain Move Moves Polls In His Favor
McCain move viewed positively and poll trends moves toward him.
Zogby polling says Republican John McCain’s poll numbers improved as he suspended his campaign Wednesday to head back to Washington and that he now leads 46% to 44% for Obama.
Gallup’s overnight tracking poll shows Obama losing 2% and McCain gaining 1% to tie the presidential contest and now put it at 46% each. The polling was conducted over three nights including Wednesday night after McCain announced he was suspending his campaign.
Rasmussen’s 3-day rolling averages among likely voters puts the race at 49% for Obama and 46% for McCain.
A FOX NEWS poll finds miserable job approval ratings for the President at 26% with 66% disapproving. Congress’ job approval is an even worse at 17% approval and 73% disapproving.
Only the ABC/Washington Post poll taken earlier this week has had a very different result in the presidential race.
McCain Reaches 50% In Polls Now Given 53-46% Chance Of Winning
McCain with wide leads in terms of experience, leadership and in the ability to protect the country from terrorist.
Sunday’s Rasmussen poll has John McCain reaching the 50% level of support for the first time. McCain retains a three-point advantage for the third straight day, 50% to 47%
Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 52.7 % chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 46 %. The biggest shift in perceptions since the index has been coined. McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 53%.
Only one national poll - the NBC/WSJ poll – has Obama ahead of McCain and then by 1%. Rasmussen, Gallup, Fox, AP, ABC, CBS, USA/Today all see the opposite by an average of 2.3%. CNN and Newsweek say the race is tied while USA/Today has McCain-Palin leading by 10%.
The “internals” show McCain with wide leads in terms of experience, leadership and in the ability to protect the country from terrorist.
The hitherto hushed discussion of the so-called “bubba vote” those who would never vote for a black for President and blacks who will only vote for another black is surging into everyday conversation.
McCain Takes Lead Reaches 50% For First Time
Gallup 50%-46% among registered voters; Rasmussen 47%-46% of likely voters.
The latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 50% to 46%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today. These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.
McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama leads among voters under age 30 trailing in all other cohorts; young women gives Obama the biggest nod; Obama leads among black 93%-3% and Hispanics 64%-24%; McCain leads among whites 50%-40%; weekly church attendees give McCain the biggest margin by 63%-28% while non-attendees support Obama 51%-39%.
The Rasmussen poll shows McCain ahead among likely voters 47%-46% a 7 point shift toward McCain in the last week. McCain leads by four points among men while Obama leads by three among women in that poll..
Palin Daughter Pregnancy Appears to Impact Polls
McCain VP Pick Bounces Polls But Daughter’s Pregnancy Appears to Deflate it.
The Saturday ZOGBY nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon Saturday before the Palin daughter’s pregnancy became known shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.
A Gallup poll conducted Aug. 29-31, also before the pregnancy disclosure among registered voters prefer Obama 49% to 43%. A Rasmussen Poll released Tuesday, September 2 taken overnight among likely voters has Obama at 51% versus McCain at 45% marking the first time either candidate has achieved a majority.
USA/Gallup Gives McCain 4% Lead (49-45%) Among Likely Voter
Among All Registered Voters Obama Leads 49-44% A Drop from 48-42% In June.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among “likely” voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of “registered” voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.
Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June. Another poll among all voters, also by Gallup, gives Obama a 7% lead and used a larger sample.
Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points — so McCain’s lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.
A Rasmussen Daily tracking poll released early Monday finds Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters.
Both indicate the Barack-bounce has already faded away.
The Race Is About Race
In what is shaping up to be a presidential race about race the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday showed Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. McCain leads by double digits among White Men and Women while Obama overwhelmingly attracts the black votes 58% to 35%. Obama leads 59% to 35% among those who rarely, never, or occasionally attend Church or other religious services. Among those who attend services at least a couple of times a month, McCain leads 56% to 37%. Obama holds a 52% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally
Close-in supporters of Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign are convinced he never will offer the vice presidential nomination to Sen. Hillary Clinton for one overriding reason: Michelle Obama who is outright hostile toward Hillary.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may not save the Homeland Security Committee chairmanship for Sen. Joseph Lieberman if he goes through with plans to address the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. Reid will not kick Lieberman out of the Democrat caucus because he has endorsed McCain. A rumor that is blistering Washington DC is that Lieberman recently approached one prominent supporter of Hillary Clinton with a suggestion that he consider supporting McCain if Barack Obama is nominated.
Hillary appears set to overshelmingly win West Virginia