All Posts Tagged With: "Primary"
One-tenth of one percent margin in Democrat Primary
A mid-July Rasmussen Poll found 49% of voters believe most reporters will try to help Barack Obama with their coverage. Forty-nine of voters believe most reporters will try to help the Democrat with their coverage.
A Newsmax.com story reports The Media Research Center’s says this year saw the closest nomination contest in a generation, with just one-tenth of a percentage point - 41,622 votes out of more than 35 million cast - separating Obama from Hillary Clinton when the Democratic primaries ended in June.
An exhaustive, eight-year Media Research Center study of the Big Three TV networks’ coverage of Barack Obama shows that their favorable spin on the Democrat gave him his margin of victory in the primaries, according to MRC president Brent Bozell.
Among the key findings:
- The three broadcast networks ran 462 positive stories about Obama - 34 percent of the total - compared with only 70 stories (5 percent) that were critical.
- NBC Nightly News was the most lopsided, with 179 pro-Obama reports, more than 10 times the number of anti-Obama stories, 17.
- The CBS Evening News ran 156 stories in favor of Obama, compared to just 21 anti-Obama reports.
- ABC’s World News was the least slanted, but still tilted roughly four-to-one in Obama’s favor - 127 positive stories to 32 negative reports.
- Barack Obama received his best press “when it mattered most, as he debuted on the national scene,” the MRC report observed.
- All three networks lavished him with praise when he was the keynote speaker at the 2004 Democratic Convention, and did not produce a single negative story about Obama prior to the start of his presidential campaign in early 2007.
- Obama’s relationship with convicted influence peddler Tony Rezko was the subject of only two full network reports, one each on ABC and NBC, and was mentioned in just 15 other stories. Also, CBS and NBC initially downplayed controversial statements from Obama’s long-time pastor Jeremiah Wright.
- Obama’s best press of this year came after he won the North Carolina primary on May 6. After that, 43 percent of stories were favorable to Obama, compared to just 1 percent that were critical.
- The networks referred to Obama as a “liberal” only 14 times in four years, while on twice as many occasions reporters referred to him as either a “rock star,” “rising star,” or “superstar” during the same period.
- Of 147 average citizens who expressed an on-camera opinion about Obama, 114 were pro-Obama, compared to just 28 that offered a negative opinion, with the remaining five offering a mixed opinion.
“This study proves emphatically and without question that the Big Three networks had a horse in this year’s Democratic primary race. And that with their wall-to-wall, 24-hour daily assistance, NBC, ABC and CBS provided Sen. Barack Obama’s margin of victory.
“As the liberal media’s ardor with Sen. Hillary Clinton evaporated, so too did the inevitability of her victory. The press fixated their infatuated gazes on Sen. Obama, and afforded him the crucial coverage and support he needed to win.”
The Media Research Center is a conservative watchdog group, and the media named and criticized in its report and other liberal groups will almost certainly try to discredit the MRC study.
Summer Flip Flops
I seem to recall an old saying that went something like “You leave the dance with the one that brung ya.”
This came to my mind after listening to the recent reports about how McCain and Obama are flip flopping on a variety of critical issues. Both candidates now seem to be moving towards the center in their need to acquire the largest voting base possible. But as so often happens, this is angering the far right and left supporters who elected these candidates in the first place. And any movement to the center can only hurt Obama more than it hurts McCain.
The far right has always been wary of McCain’s more centric outlook, as well they should be. He paid lip service to the basic tenants of the Christian right during the primary but now that he is the candidate he is moving back to the center again. No one is really surprised at this change, including the far right candidates. There is discussion of making this an issue during the convention but it is doubtful if much will happen. As long as McCain promises to stay the course in Iraq, continue to support the Second Amendment and be pro-life then most Republicans will continue to support him.
On the other hand, Obama cannot afford to anger the far left that elected him over Hillary this spring. Yet he did just that when he tried to sneak in during the start of the long weekend an idea of taking more time on bringing the troops home. But it backfired on him and Obama now has to spend time trying to explain that he didn’t really mean that. It is on this promise, of bringing home the troops immediately, that most differentiated Barack from Hillary and his supporters will not give him any leeway on this issue.
Yet if Barack stays true to his far left supporters then he won’t be elected. It is as simple as that. We have
seen this happen time after time in the Democratic Party. Candidates who promote far left issues find themselves out of sync with the rest of the nation. Bill Clinton, the only Democratic candidate in the past 25 years to be elected, ran on a centrist theme from the start and therefore was not tied to far left extremist ideas. All the other recent Democratic candidates relied on far left supporters to win the primary and found they had very little room to move towards the center. And so they lost.
Barack Obama’s first effort to move slightly towards the center, even during a four day weekend when no one is supposed to be paying any attention, did become an issue and was met with resistance from his supporters. It will be interesting to watch over the next four months if Obama can become more centrist in order to appeal to a bigger voter block. Or perhaps I should rephrase it to read; if Obama’s supporters will allow him to move to the right from their far left stance.
Can he appeal to more centrist voters or is he stuck with the far left ones that he brung to this dance?
Game, Set and Match
My neck hurts more than usual. It is a good thing I am scheduled for some treatment later this week because it sure had a work-out over the weekend. On one hand I was swiveling my head back and forth watching the French Open tennis tournament. At the same time I was flipping channels Saturday to watch the verbal battle in the DNC meeting as they debated what to do with Michigan and Florida.
As the men and women of the tennis matches returned volley after volley with speed, determination and skill so did the two sides at the DNC Committee meeting. Although there was no “scoreboard” in the jam packed board room, everyone was keeping track of the ebb and flow of the delegate count.
Ironically, neither the tennis match nor the committee’s finding were beneficial to American women. The most famous current women tennis players were defeated early on in the French Open. As both Serena and Venus Williams were beaten in the third round so was Hillary in Saturday’s rulings. The biggest blow was in the Michigan ruling where Clinton hoped to walk away with more delegates than what was given to her.
What next? Hilary’s supporters hinted that they might take it to the convention as the small crowd of middle aged white women cheered in the background. But no matter what they do, the odds are slim and none that she will eventually win.
Perhaps the greatest result of the meeting is it marked the beginning of the end for the Clinton dominance and control of the DNC. By nearly a 2-1 vote the committee members showed that it is now an Obama party. You could say that Obama and his supporters kept serving ace after ace which Hillary could never return.
How will an Obama controlled DNC act during the upcoming national election? That is the biggest unknown out there. Barack is an untested, inexperienced politician who so far is playing this game brilliantly. He continuously has beaten anyone who goes up against him in spite of being an “unranked” newcomer. How has he done this against some of the biggest names in the Democratic party? Maybe he is just that good at the game and yet….
Newsmakers are just now beginning to come out of their trance over this young man to dig into his history. On Saturedy he left his controversial church but who knows what else may be out there about him? Hillary’s complaint that Obama is unvetted may prove to be prophetic. All we can do now is watch the game unfold between Obama and McCain and see what happens over the next six months.
As for my aching neck, it got one more workout on Saturday. Late in the afternoon I finally got up off my couch and walked outside. And in the beautiful sun drenched Florida afternoon I lifted my head up to the blue sky. Looking to the east I saw the familiar sign of a large white puffy spiral climbing towards the heavens. Another successful space shuttle launched. No matter how many times I have seen this, it is still an awesome sight. And maybe in the political games we all could use an occasional time-out not only to rest but to remind us of what they are fighting for and the high stakes that will go to the winner.
Michigan Primary Flawed or Obama Michigan Strategy Flawed?
Pat Buchanan, who has campaigned previously for President, says the Clinton campaign is now really campaigning in order to get a firm offer or rejection for the Vice Presidential nomination. They are playing Hardball, asking for, in his satirical term, “totus porcus”, the whole hog in Florida and Michigan.
One of the questions of the day is, were the Florida and Michigan primaries flawed or were the DNC punishment decisions flawed or in the case of Michigan, was Barack Obama’s decision to take his name off the ballot flawed?
Or was the my question flawed? I take total responsibility. I am used to carrying the heavy loads.
Florida, Florida, Florida
The delegate count is beginning to slowly build up for Obama with the magic number clearly in sight for him. Although I don’t particularly care for him I nonetheless am beginning to breathe a sigh of relief. Why? Because I live in Florida and if Obama has enough votes without Florida then Clinton can’t drag this state into a controversial fight for the Democratic nomination.
After the last two elections there were people who absolutely hated my state. Yet to those of us living here it seemed extremely unfair. That whole business of hanging shads and miscounted votes happened in South Florida. Everybody knows that Palm Beach and Miami are partly populated with Yankees; retired New Yorkers, Bostonians and other northerners. It is also a haven for immigrants, legal and otherwise, who may not have a good handle on the English language. But it definitely isn’t representative of the rest of the state.
Nonetheless, Democrats blamed Gore’s loss on Florida, regardless of where in the state you lived. And their anger and bitterness ran so deep that when my state was hit with three consecutive hurricanes in 2004 causing terrible devastation across the state they blamed it on God punishing Floridians for the past elections. Excuse me? You try being huddled in a bathtub for hours on end while not one, not two but three hurricanes come tearing across your front door. There is nothing as unnerving as to suddenly lose power right after your local weatherman announces that the eye of the hurricane was over your hometown. Then as friends and neighbors are cleaning up and making repairs to be told by some scathing Democrats that you deserved it.
They were still angry at us in the 2004 election where Florida was one of the main reasons the Democrats lost, again. If this state is that important to the Democrats you would think they might be a bit nicer to us. But noooooo. After the ’04 loss many of them couldn’t stop saying how stupid we were to vote for Bush again plus to have a Bush as governor, too. I still don’t quite get that strategy. If you want someone on your side you probably shouldn’t call them stupid.
Now here we are in the middle of election season and my state is again in the middle of the debate because Florida leaders moved up the primary date against the party’s rules. The National Republican leaders said they would only count half of the Republican delegates while the Democratic leaders said that they won’t count any of the Democratic Florida’s votes. Even though over 1.5 million Floridians voted for a Democratic candidate they were told that not one of their votes count.
OK, that makes sense. You have a state that has been pivotal in losing the past two elections and you tell them that for this primary their votes don’t even count. I can’t help but think that the National Democratic Committee is still punishing Floridians because of the past two elections. Call it revenge for 2000 and payback for 2004 but I just call it very nearsighted. They will need these votes come November, yet why should the voters turn out for them since the leadership has said they don’t count now in the primaries.
Florida appears to at least have avoided being dragged into an internal party fight for their candidate. Obama Democrats continue to say Florida doesn’t count whereas Hillary’s team wants to count her votes from this state. There were definite signs that the two Democrat groups were going to once again fight over votes from Florida. But as I said up front, luckily it appears that Barack is now in such a commanding lead that even with our votes Hillary still won’t catch up to him. Whew. I feel almost as relieved as I do when a hurricane heading my way turns course at the last minute and goes out to sea. Yet even though we may have missed this one who knows what might churn up come November? I guess we Floridians will just have to hunker down and wait and see what roll we might end up playing this fall. But if we don’t vote for the Democrat’s candidate and they lose for a third time, just call it payback for counting us out in the primary….
ZOGBY POLL SHOWS +10% FOR CLINTON IN KEYSTONE PRIMARY
As dawn broke over Pennsylvania Clinton’s lead over Obama had opened to 51% to 41%. Clinton having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll’s margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll.
Obama has poured millions into ads in Pennsylvania hoping for a knock out blow that does not appear to be occuring.
Meanwhile, 6% remained undecided and another 3% said they preferred someone else in the two-day tracking poll.
The Obama Affect
I read an interesting article highlighted in the Drudge Report. It was from an article in The Australian about Obama. The journalist, Geoff Elliott compared the reaction Obama is getting to how people reacted to Mandela. In other words, people are looking up to Obama as more than just a new leader, but as a cult figure even something “akin to a messiah”. Wow.
Hillary’s Trade-Offs
As the primary continues to unfold I can’t help but think about Hillary’s life. People forget that it was Hillary, not Bill, who was the “rock star” when they first met. But she gave it all up to move to Arkansas and help an unknown lawyer run for governor in one of the most backwards states in the nation. Her friends were appalled by her decision. I can’t help but think of the song from Chorus Line “What We Do for Love”.
It wasn’t all terrible. Arkansas is in the boonies but being a governor’s wife isn’t a bad deal. Then there were the ensuing connections and how that helped her career (and checkbook). Bill might have strayed but Hillary knew he loved her and Chelsea, and he always came back. So she stayed and ended up in the White House. Again, not a bad trade off. Then he cheated there and this time publicly humiliated her and her child.
Obama Phenomena
It seems as if Obama is being carried by a tidal wave of adoration and gaining a momentum that Hillary might not be able to stop. There are reports of growing crowds wherever he goes as he mesmerizes all demographic groups: old, young, black, white, rural, suburb. I have even read of women fainting during his speeches as if he is the new Elvis or Beatle or Sinatra (pick your idol based on your generation). And yet….
Anyone who follows Obama and listens to him will agree that as wonderful as his speeches are they still don’t contain any substance. To learn more about him, I checked his website; http://www.barrackobama.com/. To my surprise