All Posts Tagged With: "POLL"
ZOGBY POLL Finds Big Turn Around and Slight Lead for McCain
Eleven Point Shift To McCain Since Obama Euro-Tour
A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.
This is a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example:
- McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
- Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
- Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
- Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
- Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
- Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.
By region, McCain’s greatest gains came in the Central U.S. and in the West, home to several key battleground states. What was a narrow Obama lead in the Central U.S. is now a 45%-36% McCain edge. In the West, Obama’s 15% lead is gone, and McCain is now ahead, 43%-40%.
On Monday Rasmussen polling also reported a turn around in McCain’s favor at Obama’s expense and a slight McCain lead.
New Poll Is About Black And White
Race About Race Is A Toss-up
Washington Post/ABC News poll finds the gap between whites and blacks on the issue is now the widest it has been in polls dating to early 1992. More than six in 10 African Americans now rate race relations as “not so good” or “poor,” while 53 percent of whites hold more positive views. Opinions are also divided along racial lines, though less so, on whether blacks face discrimination. There is more similarity on feelings of personal racial prejudice: Thirty percent of whites and 34 percent of blacks admit such sentiments.
Just over half of whites in the new poll called Obama a “risky” choice for the White House, while two-thirds said McCain is a “safe” pick. Forty-three percent of whites said Obama has sufficient experience to serve effectively as president, and about two in 10 worry he would over represent the interests of African Americans.
Among those who are most likely to vote, the Presidential contest is a tossup, with McCain at 48 percent and Obama at 47 percent. African Americans will make Obama competitive in GOP-leaning states with large black populations. But to win in November, Obama most likely will have to close what is now a 12-point deficit among whites. (Whites made up 77 percent of all voters in 2004; blacks were 11 percent, according to network exit polls.)
ZOGBY POLL SHOWS +10% FOR CLINTON IN KEYSTONE PRIMARY
As dawn broke over Pennsylvania Clinton’s lead over Obama had opened to 51% to 41%. Clinton having gained three points over the past 24 hours as Obama lost one point, pushing her beyond the poll’s margin of error to create a statistically significant lead for the first time in the Pennsylvania daily tracking poll.
Obama has poured millions into ads in Pennsylvania hoping for a knock out blow that does not appear to be occuring.
Meanwhile, 6% remained undecided and another 3% said they preferred someone else in the two-day tracking poll.