All Posts Tagged With: "OVER"
McCain Take 5% Lead Over Obama
McCain Leads 80-48% On Experience.
According to a new Zogby Poll McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin, and McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.
This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month - in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.
An LA Times/Bloomberg poll found a dead heat between Obama and McCain. The same poll shows MCain leading 80-48% on having the experience to be President.
Georgian Fighting Over But Consequences Have Just Begun
“…(T)he collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century, ” Russian Prime Minister Putin.
Last week, South Ossetian separatists - supported by Moscow - poured machine gun and mortar fire into neighboring Georgian villages. Georgia retaliated by attacking the separatist capital Tskhinvali with artillery, providing the pretext for Moscow’s invasion of Georgia.
Stanford University’s Russia scholar Michael McFaul sums up the use of overwhelming force by Russia in Georgia this week as nothing less than “a signal to everyone that Russia is back - and Russia is going to try and dominate this region of the world,” according to a report in The Los Angeles Times.
Fighting has ended, for now, in the Russo-Georgian War but scholars and pundits alike are resurrecting such iconic terms as “Cold War,” “Iron Curtain,” and “spheres of influence.” Make no mistake that Putin’s Russia has no intention of allowing a pro-western government within what he views as Russia’s domain, and is more than willing to kill a few thousand people to prove it.
“Historians will come to view Aug. 8, 2008, as a turning point no less significant than Nov. 9, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell. Russia’s attack on sovereign Georgian territory marked the official return of history, indeed to an almost 19th-century style of great-power competition, complete with virulent nationalisms, battles for resources, struggles over spheres of influence and territory…,” says Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a Washington Post column.
Burnishing his enormous egotism and ambition t be greater than even Stalin Russian Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, who raced back from the Bejing Olympics to take command, charged that the U.S. has displayed a “Cold War mentality” in its friendship with leaders in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, according to The Times. Left wing sources chimed in to blame the U. S. even claiming it actually started the conflict.
Polemics aside, think-tankers has been burning the midnight oil analyzing just what Mr. Putin is up to. It seems to me simplistically easy given Putin decree that the collapse of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [20th] century.” Sensing an opportunity with a potential new liberal, Eurocentric naïve, inexperienced U. S. administration the last few days then are the beginning of what Putin is designing as a Russian renaissance.
“Armed with wealth from oil and gas; holding a near-monopoly over the energy supply to Europe; with a million soldiers, thousands of nuclear warheads and the world’s third-largest military budget, Vladimir Putin believes that now is the time to make his move,” Kagan says.
Ariel Cohen, senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security at The Heritage Foundation, has ferreted out what he believes to be the Putin strategy including:
- expulsion of Georgian troops and termination of Georgian sovereignty in South Ossetia and Abkhazia;
- “regime change” by bringing down President Mikheil Saakashvili and installing a more pro-Russian leadership in Tbilisi;
- preventing Georgia from joining NATO and sending a strong message to Ukraine that its insistence on NATO membership may lead to war and/or its dismemberment;
- Shifting control of the Caucasus, and especially over strategic energy pipelines, by controlling Georgia; and
- recreating a 19th-century-style sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union, by the use of force if necessary.
More importantly, in my opinion, Putin wants to demonstrate that he can sabotage at will American and European Union (EU) declarations about integrating Commonwealth of Independent States members into Western structures such as NATO.
McCain Takes Over Energy and Ethics As Voter Issues
Sixty-seven percent (67%) believe McCain shares this priority while just 29% believe Obama holds that same view.
By substantial margins, voters believe that McCain’s top priority is finding new sources of energy while Obama is more focused on reducing the amount of energy we consume. Sixty-seven percent (67%) believe McCain shares this priority while just 29% believe Obama holds that same view.
Most voters-55%–believe that Obama’s top priority is reducing the amount of energy we consume. Only 12% believe this is McCain’s primary focus on the energy issue.
Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated voters all see McCain’s top priority as finding more energy sources.
As for Obama, Democrats are evenly divided-41% believe he is most interested in finding new sources of energy while 43% say he is most interested in reducing the amount of energy we use. By large margins, Republicans and unaffiliated voters see Obama as primarily seeking to reduce energy consumption. He also leads on environment, education and health care but McCain has gained on every issue in recent days.
McCain leads on the economy, energy, national security, immigration, balanced budget, social security, trade issue, and is taking over the ethics issue now too.
On Iraq Obama’s position is more in line with popular opinion. Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters nationwide now believe that getting the troops home is the top priority. Forty-two percent (42%) say winning the War is more important.
The Edwards’ scandal and his repeated prevarications is reminding voters about Clinton’s perjury and impeachment and shading their opinions against Democrats and Obama on the ethics issue too.
Last Month The US Navy Helped Put Out Over 1,000 Wildfires Then Blazing Across California
NAVY GLOBAL HAWK PILOTLESS UAVs GAVE DETAILED REALTIME PICTURES OF FIRES TO FIREFIGHTERS.
The U.S. Navy lent their RQ-4 Global Hawk UAV to the state of California last month, for use in monitoring the progress of massive forest and brush fires in the northern part of the state. The RQ-4 stayed in the air for nearly 24 hours, using its powerful sensors to send detailed images to those managing the effort to fight the fires.
It’s not unusual for the military to contribute personnel or other resources to civilian disasters, including forest fires. But the RQ-4 was unique in that the navy is still testing this version of Global Hawk, which is equipped for maritime patrol. The RQ-4 is a long range UAV, that can reach any place in the world in 24 hours. Earlier this year, an RQ-4A made the first non-stop crossing of the Pacific, flying 12,000 kilometers, from California to Australia, in 23 hours. The Global Hawk has previously crossed the Pacific in several hops, but it always had the endurance to do it non-stop.
The U.S. Navy has found that engaging in this kind of disaster relief effort is very beneficial. First, the people being helped appreciate it, and this is good in the PR department. But the sailors and marines involved get useful experience operating in intense, and often extreme, circumstances.
A strategic reconnaissance UAV like the RQ-4, which can intensely scan land and water surfaces, is particularly useful for disaster relief. The video and still images an RQ-4 generates are transmitted via satellite to the ground, and can easily be put onto an Internet connection. This makes it easy to get the images to the people running the disaster relief. In effect, the RQ-4 is like having a photo-satellite overhead all the time.
In the last seven years, RQ-4s have flown over 20,000 hours, most of that combat missions, and many of them from Persian Gulf bases. The latest models have been able to fly 20 hour missions, land for refueling and maintenance, and be off in four hours for another twenty hours in the sky. The RQ-4 has been very reliable, with aircraft being ready for action 95 percent of the time. The U.S. Air Force has been buying them at the rate of five a year, at a cost of $58 million each.
The new B version is larger (wingspan is 15 feet larger, at 131 feet, and it’s four feet longer at 48 feet) than the A model, and can carry an additional two tons of equipment. To support that, there’s a new generator that produces 150 percent more electrical power. The B version is a lot more reliable. Early A models tended to fail and crash at the rate of once every thousand flight hours, mostly because of design flaws.
The first three RQ-4Bs entered service in 2006. At 13 tons, the Global Hawk is the size of a commuter airliner (like the Embraer ERJ 145), but costs nearly twice as much. Global Hawk can be equipped with much more powerful, and expensive, sensors. These more the double the cost of the aircraft. These spy satellite quality sensors (especially AESA radar) are usually worth the expense, because they enable the UAV, flying at over 60,000 feet, to get a sharp picture of all the territory it can see from that altitude.
The U.S. Air Force is stationing a squadron of seven Global Hawks on the island of Guam. These UAVs will begin arriving there next year, and undertake recon missions throughout the western Pacific. The U.S. Navy is also planning to buy Global Hawks, 44 of them, to perform maritime reconnaissance. As a result of that decision, Australia is likely to buy some as well, to monitor the vast stretches of ocean that surround the island continent. The navy RQ-4 used in northern California is the test aircraft the navy is using to see how effective the Global Hawk would be on maritime patrol missions.
Defecation Hits Impeller And Splatters Again Over Alleged Edwards Bastard
If John Edwards the father he and Hunter were doing the “daddy-deed” almost simultaneously with Mrs. Edwards announcement that her cancer had returned.
Mysterious self-described ‘intuitive’ and celebrity confidante Bob McGovern allegedly shuttled Rielle Hunter, and her baby girl allegedly sired by former Senator, Gore VP, Democrat Presidential Hopeless, and Obama VP designee wannabe John Edwards from Santa Barbara to the Beverly Hilton Hotel where McGovern had reportedly booked to rooms. A security guard discovered Edwards scampering from Hunter’s room in the wee hours of the morning.
Edwards hide in a men’s room until a Hotel Security Guard sneaked him off the property.
Edwards denies fathering the bastard child born February 7th which would mean Hunter once described as her “savior, healer of all healers.” Bob McGovern is an intuitive who has worked as a healer since 1988. He works with energy in the area of the emotional fields. He uses philosophy, psychology and the intuitive to find resolutions that move people back into alignment with the universe and into a place of peace, harmony and joy.
Bob uses the intuitive to help people with a variety of life issues, including relationships, career and health. His knowledge of the past and the future helps people find balance in the present. He is able to separate out surrounding negative energy, which allows people to have a clearer perception of their own options and choices. He works to empower people so that they can respond to the challenges of daily life with greater discernment and fuller understanding.
The grocery store tabloid National Inquirer, that has a battalion of reporters scrutinizing Edwards, Hunter, McGovern and former Edwards aide Andrew Young who has claimed he in fact is the child’s father claims a super-wealthy Edwards supporter has been funneling pay off cash to both Hunter and Young.
A Friday article in the Santa Barbara News Press confirmed some parts of the story including the birth of a baby girl to Hunter on February 7.
It is unclear if there is a McGovern - Edwards connection, and Edwards is still not admitting he ever “connected” with Hunter.
By the way California is one of the states that prohibits the release of genetic information without prior permission,
Split Over Oil Speculators and Offshore Drilling
As far as public opinion is concerned, the best answer would be to do both.
Americans are nearly evenly divided on which is more important- cracking down on speculators or lifting the ban on offshore drilling — as the debate comes to a head in Congress this week over how to fight rising gas and oil prices. As far as public opinion is concerned, the best answer would be to do both.
A new Rasmussen Reports national survey, taken last night (Monday), finds that 45% think placing more restrictions on energy speculators is more important , while 42% take the opposite view that allowing offshore oil drilling is more important.
Most Americans still favor drilling for oil off the shore of the continental United States and believe that it will help reduce gas and oil prices. Fifty-seven percent (57%) favor offshore drilling versus 29% who are opposed. Nearly the same number (56%) believe that gas prices would be at least somewhat likely to fall if the ban is lifted.
Support for lifting the drilling ban has dropped slightly from 62% since Republican presidential candidate John McCain first proposed it as part of an overall energy strategy in mid-June. His Democratic opponent, Barack Obama, supports the ban, a position national Democrats and major environmental groups have championed for years.
Falling gasoline consumption, increasing supplies, and the threat of more domestic oil production, and the “secret agreement” with Iran have conspired to send the price of oil down. Most think the per barrel price will be pushed below $100 and maybe as low as $80 this Fall. Relieving pressure on consumers and creating a sense of relief.
Hypocritically some in Congress want to “take advantage” of lowering prices to raise federal fuel taxes.
What If Peace Is Breaking Out all Over - A World Tour.
While the mass media continues to feature wars and terrorism, the overall trend continues away from such unpleasantness.
Such stories are anathema to the mass media, because they do not attract eyeballs, and revenue.
That’s the way people are, and the result is a distorted view of trends in global violence.
Worldwide, violence continues to decline, as it has for the last few years. Violence has also greatly diminished, or disappeared completely, in places like Iraq, Nepal, Chechnya, Congo, Indonesia and Burundi. Even Afghanistan, touted as the new war zone, is seeing less violence this year than last.
All this continues a trend that began when the Cold War ended, and the Soviet Union no longer subsidized terrorist and rebel groups everywhere. The current wars are basically uprisings against police states or feudal societies, which are seen as out-of-step with the modern world. Many are led by radicals preaching failed dogmas (Islamic conservatism, Maoism), that still resonate among people who don’t know about the dismal track records of these movements.
The War on Terror has morphed into the War Against Islamic Radicalism. This religious radicalism has always been around, for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems. The current enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building for over half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism have flared up periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needs a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among Moslems.
Normally, the West does not get involved in these Islamic religious wars, unless attacked in a major way. Moreover, modern sensibilities have made that more difficult. For example, fighting back is considered, by Moslems, as culturally insensitive (”war on Islam”), and some of the Western media have picked up on this bizarre interpretation of reality. However, some historians like to point out, for example, that the medieval Crusades were a series of wars fought in response to Islamic violence against Christians, not the opening act of aggression against Islam that continue to the present. Thus, the current war on terror is, indeed, in the tradition of the Crusades. And there are many other “Crusades” brewing around the world, in the many places where aggressive Islamic militants are making unprovoked war on their Christian neighbors. Political Correctness among academics and journalists causes pundits to try and turn this reality inside out. But a close look at the violence in Africa, Asia and the Middle East shows a definite pattern of Islamic radicals persecuting those who do not agree with them, not the other way around.
While Islamic terrorism grabs most of the headlines, it is not the cause of many casualties, at least not compared to more traditional wars. The vast majority of the military related violence and deaths in the world comes from many little wars that get little media attention outside their region. Actually some of them are not so little. While causalities from terrorism are relatively few (usually 5,000-,000 dead a year worldwide), the dead and wounded from all the other wars actually comprise about 95 percent of all the casualties. The Islamic terrorism looms larger because the terrorists threaten attacks everywhere, putting a much larger population in harms way, and unhappy with that prospect. But in the West, and most Moslem nations, Islamic terrorism remains more of a threat than reality.
Current wars are listed in alphabetical orders. Text underneath briefly describes current status. Click on country name for more details.
The Taliban attempt at a comeback has been reinforced by drug gang profits and al Qaeda choosing the Pakistani border area the location for their last stand. With all that, violence nationwide is still lower than last year. A sharp increase in Taliban activity in 2006 brought forth a sharp response from government and NATO forces. Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace, prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (which is based across the border in Pakistan). The newly elected Pakistani government is reluctant to make on the pro-Taliban tribes and various Islamic terrorist organizations. That has increased the flow of gunmen from Pakistan into Afghanistan. But the violence inside Afghanistan is growing, largely because of the growth of the drug gangs, and their support for tribes (especially pro-Taliban ones) that oppose the national government.
A few hundred Islamic rebels persist, despite the hostility of most Algerians. The local Islamic terrorists have now officially become a part of al Qaeda, and have turned to suicide bombing. This kills a lot of civilians, and increases the hatred the population already feels towards the Islamic radicals. The level of terrorist violence is still much lower than it was a few years ago. The population is not happy, and a general uprising remains a threat because of dissatisfaction with the old revolutionaries that refuse to honor election results, share power or govern effectively.
The Greater Albania Movement is driven by part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters, political opportunists, Kosovo separatists and some Islamic radicals. West Europeans got their way, and Kosovo became independent. Serbia disagrees with that, and Big Brother Russia offers all manner of support, and threats. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists, despite the local government becoming increasingly hostile to these foreign troublemakers and alien Islamic conservatism.
Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing democrats and Islamic radicals. But not much violence, just a lot of potential.
Rebel movements grew and united, aided by Sudanese backed Arab militias from across the border. The Chad government gave refuge to Sudanese Darfur rebels. The government thought they had a peace deal, but it quickly fell apart. European peacekeepers are arriving, but are having problems obtaining sufficient helicopters and air transport. Much of the unrest along the border is caused by refugees from tribal battles in Sudan, who bring their feuds with them. Prospects for peace are not good.
The confrontation with Taiwan continues, as do hostilities with neighbors, separatists, dissenters and ancient enemies. A new government in Taiwan plays down independence, and China responds with soothing words. But also China speeds up modernization of its armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding. China has developed a major Cyber War capability, and has been using it for over a year. The targets of this, in Western Europe and the U.S., have figured this out, and a new crises is born. China has become major secret supplier of cheap weapons to bad guys everywhere. World class weapons are planned for the future, some 10-20 years from now.
After over three decades, leftist rebels more rapidly losing support, recruits and territory. Even leftist demagogue Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has dropped support for the Colombian rebels, although he is still providing sanctuary for them and their cocaine producing allies. The drug gangs and leftist rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war in increasingly about money, not ideology. The leftist rebels are definitly losing, but all that drug money will keep them in the game for quite a while.
Multiple tribal and political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the countryside. Peacekeepers and army action have reduced the size of these violent groups, but not eliminated them. However, there are fewer places that the bad guys can roam freely. Attempts to merge rebels into the army has not worked well. The last major problem is a Tutsi militia in the east, which will not disarm until the government destroys Hutu militias built around Hutu mass murderers who fled neighboring Rwanda in the 1990s. UN peacekeepers criticized for not fighting more, but that’s not their job. Congolese army not up to it yet either, so there it simmers.
Border dispute with Eritrea festers, and invasion of Somalia bogs down in local clan feuds. Internally, rebellious Moslem groups are a constant threat, especially with more active support from Eritrea. Ogaden province, right on the Somali border, and full of ethnic Somalis, has rebelled again. Not a big deal, but one more hot spot that burns up troops and scarce cash. These two border wars have been around for centuries, and not likely to go away now.
Peacekeepers keep a lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal and political gangs. Peacekeepers have busted up many of the gangs, and sharply lowered the crime rate. But the government is still corrupt and prone to breed lawbreakers and disorder.
Kashmir is but one of many rebellions that beset the region. India also has tribal and Islamic rebel in the northeast, and Maoist (communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border. The Taliban had become stronger in Pakistan, where it originated, than in Afghanistan. Newly elected Pakistani government wants to make peace with the Taliban and the Taliban is willing to pretend it is cooperating. India and Pakistan both have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms race. Pakistani Islamic radical groups continue to support terrorism in India and Afghanistan, and are still threatening the Pakistani government with attacks. Pakistan has always been a mess, and does not appear to be getting better.
Basically at peace, but separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that could get hot real fast. Islamic terrorists have been greatly diminished, as Islamic moderates flex their traditional popularity. Aceh still has a few diehard separatist rebels. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern itself.
The basic problem is that an Islamic conservative minority has veto power over the reformist majority. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up. After that comes another revolution. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to support terrorism overseas and build nuclear weapons at home, rather than improving the economy and living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence becoming more common, and government seeks foreign adventures to distract an unhappy population.
The “surge offensive” last year capitalized on years of work, crushed the Islamic terrorists. Violence plunged by over 80 percent. More areas of the country are now at peace (as some have been since 2003.) The Sunni Arab minority has worked out peace deals with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. Some Sunni Arab Islamic radicals are still active, but are in decline. Some Sunni Arabs, who had fled the country, are returning, but nearly half the Sunni Arabs are already gone. The Shia militias have been defeated as well, mainly by Iraqi police and troops. Corruption and inept government continues to be a major problem.
Palestinians are trying to make some kind of peace, in order to reverse the economic disaster they brought on themselves because of their seven year terror campaign against Israel. Palestinians are tired of terrorism, even though they still support it. The Palestinian economy has collapsed, as foreign charity dried up because the people elected the Hamas (Islamic terrorists) party to power. Civil war between radical Hamas and corrupt Palestinian old guard (Fatah) has split Palestinians. Iran backed Islamic radicals (Hizbollah) in Lebanon have revived fears of civil war up there. Hizbollah threatens to drag Lebanon into another civil war, or another war with Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli economy booms as Israel continues its effective counter-terrorism campaign.
An uneasy truce continues. The north and the south finally make a deal over money, religion and power. All this is watched over by peacekeepers set up between the factions.
Growing unrest, corruption and privation threaten the iron control that has long kept the north peaceful. North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed forces capable of invading South Korea and keep its own population in bondage. Continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more troops to the border to keep hungry North Koreas out. North Korean military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause continuing rot. Government split into reform and conservative factions, making change difficult to achieve. South Koreans are growing tired of the madness that still reigns in the north.
Turkish aircraft and troops now operating on the Iraqi side of the border, seeking to either destroy Kurdish separatists, or push their bases further into Iraq. Kurds continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. Iran is cracking down on its Kurds, while Turkey threatens even more action if the Iraqi Kurdish government doesn’t get serious about the Kurdish separatists who operate inside Turkey, from bases in Iraq. Iraqi Kurds believe they will get control of some Iraqi oil fields, providing cash for all manner of opportunities. But that is opposed by Iraqi Arabs and other minorities.
The U.S. border is like a war zone. The passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption in the security forces, has triggered growing violence and unrest. The government has gone to war with the drug gangs, and the outcome is still in doubt.
Radical communist rebels succeed in eliminating the monarchy, via an alliance with political parties. This has decreased Maoist violence, and caused a struggle for control of the government. All this has triggered uprising by other unhappy groups (more radical Maoists, hill tribes, ethnic Indians).
Too many tribes, not enough oil money and too much corruption creates growing violence. The tribes and gangs (both criminal and political) in the oil producing region (the Niger Delta) are getting organized, and a lot more violent. The northern Moslems want more control over the federal government (and the oil money). Local rebels threaten loss of most oil revenue, which is getting the governments attention.
Various places where the local situation is warming up and might turn into a war. Zimbabwe and Yemen are hot right now.
Islamic minority in the south wants its own country, and the expulsion of non-Moslems. Communist rebels in the north fight for social justice and a dictatorship. Both of these movements are losing and the Moslems are negotiating a peace deal that inches closer to a done deal. The communists are taking a beating, and not willing to talk seriously yet.
Rebuilding and reforming the decrepit Soviet era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other parts of the Caucasus. Russia returns to police state ways, and traditional threatening attitude towards neighbors.
War between better organized and more aggressive Tutsis and more numerous Hutu tribes. It’s been going on for centuries, but the latest installment has finally ended, with the last Hutu group in Burundi giving up, then changing its mind.
A failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. It was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over economic issues (land and water). The new “transitional” government, was nearly wiped out by an “Islamic Courts” movement (which attempted to put the entire country under the rule of Islamic clergy and Islamic law). When Islamic Courts threatened to expand into Ethiopia, Ethiopia invaded and smashed the Islamic Courts. The Islamic radicals have turned to terrorism, and Eritrea continues to provide support. The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight.
Tamil minority (19th century economic migrants from southern India) battles to partition the island. A long ceasefire ends and fighting has resumed. Tamils (the LTTE) are losing this time. LTTE will not go quietly, even though they lose a little more each month.
Moslems in the north try to suppress separatist tendencies among Christians in the south and Moslem rebels in the east and west. All this is complicated by development of oil fields in the south, and Moslem government attempts to drive Christians from the oil region. Battles over land in the west pit Arab herders against black Sudanese farmers. Both sides are Moslem, but the government is backing the Arabs. The government uses Arab nationalism and economic ties with Russia and China to defy the world and get away with driving non-Arab tribes from Darfur. The government believes time is on its side, and that the West will never trying anything bold and effective to halt the violence. So far, the government has been proven right.
Malay Moslems in the south are three percent of the population, and different. Most Thais, are ethnic Thais and Buddhist. In the south, however, Islamic radicalism has arrived, along with an armed effort to create a separate Islamic state in the three southern provinces. Islamic terrorists grew more powerful month by month for several years, and refuse to negotiate. Security forces persisted and are making progress in rounding up the terrorists. Meanwhile, civil war brews between urban and rural segments of the population, under the leadership of political parties that differ on how the nation should be run.
Religion and tribalism combine to create a persistent rebellion in the north, which was aided by Sudan. But now the northern rebels have been worn down, and the unrest is just about done with. Final peace deal with LRA rebels being negotiated. It’s taking longer than expected, and the LRA may just fade away before a final deal is made.
International terrorism has created a international backlash and a war unlike any other. The only terrorist victories are in the media. On the ground, the terrorists are losing ground everywhere. Their last refuges are chaotic, or cynical, places like Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Gaza, the Sahel, a few of the Philippine islands, and especially tribal regions of Pakistan (where al Qaeda is staging a last stand). They are being chased out of Iraq, Somalia and the Philippines. Iran continues to support terrorism in the face of much local disapproval. Syria and Lebanon are in chaos because of Iranian subsidized factions. Gaza went the same way. Islamic radicals are a traditional reaction to tyranny in their region, and the inability of local despots to rule effectively. Economic and diplomatic ties with the West are interpreted as support, leading to attacks on Western targets that created a devastating counterattack. The result of this in the Moslem world has been dramatic, finally forcing leaders and people to confront their self-inflicted problems. Al Qaeda is as self-destructive as its many predecessors. Al Qaeda suicide bomb attacks that continue to kill civilians, continues to turn Moslems against al Qaeda in a big way. But the terrorists justify such dumb attacks because their doctrine holds that Moslems who don’t agree with them, are not really Moslems. You can imagine how well that goes over with most Moslems. You can, but al Qaeda can’t, and that is what guarantees their demise.
Jeffrey Toobin of Best Political Team On CNN, “ITS OVER”
Of today’s 19 to 8 vote by the Democratic Party Rules Committee to only give the Michigan Delegates one half votes, he says many of those 19 votes were from Clinton supporters on the committee and that is the signal that it is over.
Additionally, there are only three days to get past the final primaries on June 3 and that the call by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to all the SuperDelegates to place their markers down right after that and indicate who they plan to vote for at the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August, does seem to seal Hillary’s long shot continuing campaign because she “is the best candidate”.
He allows for no possibility that there remains a Hail Mary chance for Hillary as president. He did not opine at the same time about the Vice Presidential nomination.
Robert Wexler told Wolf blitzer that an Obama/Clinton ticket would be a very exciting ticket but that would be up to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Toobin also said that Howard Dean is to be congratulated for unifying the party and that the Rules Committee Co Chairmen, Jame Roosevelt and Alexa Herman were to be congratulated for pulling together a very unruly committee which contained a majority of Clinton supporters.
Money Bundlers will Tell Hillary it is Over Per Fineman
On Charlier Rose, when asked, Howard Fineman talked about the conventional wisdom that a 6%, margin in Pennsylvania, which he is a part of creating in his Cable TV roles behind the big desks, is the tipping point for a win or a lose for Hillary against the Politician Formerly known as Barry.
He said Gov Rendell and Vernon Jordan may be among those who personally will tell Hillary it is time to call it a done deal, but that more importantly it will be the funders and their bundlers who will make it clear that the race is over. He further said Hillary is already broke and will not want to spend the next few years at fundraisers to pay off accumulating debts and even if she wins by more than 10% in Penn, that convincing win will be undone by future primaries, the numbers and the proportional system works against her and for so many reasons time is too short and she is unlikely to win the nomination.
While referring to current Clinton loyalist Harold Ickes, who carried Ted Kennedy’s water at a previous long past Democratic Convention in a last ditch effort to dislodge Jimmy Carter as the incumbent nominee, in the race he lost to Ronald Reagan, Fineman indicated that if that occurred in Denver in Aug 08 at the Democratic National Convention, a lot of damage will be done and by inference would increase John McCain’s less than likely chance to beat either Democrat in November.
So when will the money guys send the message?
And if they do, will Hillary et al be willing and try to find a way to nontheless joust with the politician formerly known as Barry in Denver this August?
No Change in Pennsylvania Over Barack’s ‘Bitter’ Comment
A Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll taken after Barack Obama’s ‘bitter’ comment shows it so far has not made any significant difference in Pennsylvania with Clinton continuing to hold a 50 – 44% lead. The Pennsylvania Primary is next Tuesday, April 22nd.
White Democrat voters back Clinton 57 – 37%; Blacks back Obama 88-8%, and voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.