All Posts Tagged With: "determine"
The identity of Israel’s post-Olmert prime minister will determine its war options on Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
DEBKAfile is usually viewed as an authoritative and well informed source.
July 1, 2008, 4:23 PM (GMT+02:00)
According to DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources, the overriding considerations that will determine if and when Israel attacks Iran are these: whether to strike before George W. Bush’s exit, whether Iran’s strategic ties with Syria and the Palestinian Hamas can be severed in advance and what Israeli prime minister is chosen to manage the war, and who is elected U. S. President.
These are the determinants, rather than “the red lines” cited by senior Pentagon officials to ABC News Monday as triggers for an Israeli offensive, namely when Natanz nuclear facility produces enough weapons-grade uranium - some time in 2009 or this year - and when Iran acquires SA-20 air defense systems from Russia
DEBKAfile quotes intelligence sources as negating those triggers:
1. Contrary to most reports, including those put out by Teheran, Iran is lagging behind its target date for producing a sufficiency of weapons-grade uranium. It is held up by the technical hitches dogging the smooth, continuous activation of its high-grade centrifuges.
2. Moscow has suspended all sales of sophisticated air defense systems to Iran and Syria alike - so that Israel has no cause for haste on that score. Sources other than DEBKAfile say Russia’s decision was an accomodation to President Bush’s plea not to be the provocation for war.
3. That Iran is heading for a nuclear weapon is no longer in doubt. What Israel must decide very soon is whether to strike Iran’s production facilities before Bush leaves the White House or wait for his successor to move in, in 2009. Most observers say if Obama is elected Israel feels it must attack but, think a McCain win would lessen the urgency.
There is a preference in Jerusalem for a date straight after the America’s November 4 presidential election - except that military experts warn that weather and lunar conditions at that time of the year are unfavorable.
If Israel does opt for an attack, August and September would be better, they say - or else hold off until March-April 2009.
Non-DEBKAfile sources speculate that the discussion about timing is a ruse.
Israel’s political volatility is another major factor in the uncertainty surrounding an attack. Towards the end of September, the ruling Kadima party is committed to a leadership primary. The party’s choice of prime minister and the factors that determine how he (or she) reaches a decision on attacking Iran can only be guessed at.
4. A final consideration must be Israel’s ability to prevent Syria and Hamas opening war fronts at the time of Israel’s attack on Iran. In other words, the IDF needs to know it must contend with two fronts, Iran and the Lebanese Hizballah, not four.
Notwithstanding these major deterrents, the weight of opinion in Israel’s decision-making community at this time is in favor of an early military strike. There is an international consensus that Iran cannot be allowed to attain a nuclear bomb, but no sanctions or incentives are proving effective as preventatives. Therefore, it is felt, the sooner Israel pre-empts a nuclear-armed Iran, the better, because the longer it delays, the more dangerous the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory capabilities will become.
Puerto Rico may determine Democratic Nominee (pst, that would be Barack)
Only in America.
Michael Barone in a U.S. News and World report says about the Democratic proportional delegate nomination and Puerto Rico: “And they aren’t likely to be proportionately distributed.”
You might find this four month old article interesting despite the fact that his prognosis for Hillary did not turn out so well, but if he is proven right in the upcoming primary about the Puerto Rican Democrats, you will see some first class irony, unintended consequences and inconsistency. I didn’t say hypocrisy, but you decide. Then take a look at what Wikipedia tells us about Puerto Rican voting in Presidential Elections:
“The major differences between Puerto Rico and the states are:
- Puerto Rico does not have the rights of a state as granted by the US constitution, because it is not a state. These include:
- Lack of voting representation in either house of the U.S. Congress, as the US Constitution provides these rights only to full states. The only delegate to the Congress is an elected Resident Commissioner who represents the people of P.R. in the United States House of Representatives. The delegate may speak but cannot vote for final passage of congressional legislation, and may serve and vote in committees, as well as the Committee of the Whole.
- The ineligibility of Puerto Rican residents to vote in presidential elections, as the US Constitution provides these rights only to full states. (Note, residents the [[District of Columbia only attained this right in 1960 by a constitutional amendment.) P.R. does not have any electors in the U.S. Electoral College, although the Puerto Rico chapters of the Republican and Democratic parties can (and do) have state-like voting delegations to their respective nominating conventions, as well as voting representation in the Democratic and Republican National Committee.
So let’s see here:
1. If Puerto Rican voters and their Democratic Party officials on June 1, 2008 give all their delegates (63) to Barack Obama he will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee is in the primary in June 2008. At the time of this post, he only lacks 43. If Puerto Rico goes all for Hillary, then Barack will have to wait until June 3, 2008 assuming the Rules Committee has not punted.
2. But these Puerto Rican Democrats join their Republican comrades in that they are all ineligible to vote in the general election in November 2008 for that same nominee.
The artifacts of history create interesting situations, to say the least.