All Posts Tagged With: "Debates"
Presidential Debate Impact Debatable
Since World War II only 1960 and 2000 seems to have changed race
An analysis by the Gallup organization says the presidential debates have had little to no impact on voter preferences during the debate periods in 1984, 1988, and 1996.
The 1980 and 1992 debates may have influenced voter support for the third-party candidates running in those elections; however, they do not appear to have altered the structure of the races for the two major-party candidates.
- In 1980, third-party candidate John Anderson fell from 15% support prior to his only debate (which was with Ronald Reagan) in late September to only 8% support by mid-October. However, given the long span between polls during this period, and the downward trend in Anderson’s support prior to the debates, it is unclear whether his debate with Reagan was a factor.
- In 1992, Ross Perot’s generally well-reviewed debate performances (close to half of Americans thought he won the first debate, and the plurality thought he won the third debate) were no doubt part of the reason he catapulted from a 10% level of support prior to the first debate to 17% support after the last debate.
The 1976 and 2004 debates seem to have made the races more competitive, but they did not change the fundamentals of the races; the candidate leading before the debates eventually won the elections.
By contrast, the debates of 1960 and 2000 seem to have been associated with meaningful shifts in the horse races for those elections, whereby the ultimate winner moved from a deficit position to front-runner.
(In 1964, 1968, and 1972, incumbent president Lyndon Johnson and Republican nominee (and later President) Richard Nixon refused to debate their opponents, so no presidential debates were held in those years.)
Obama Dodges Lincoln-Douglass Style Debates
Candidate all ready said “No” to townhall meetings.
Barack Obama on Saturday backed even further away from facing John McCain’s in a series of Lincoln-Douglas debates, agreeing only to the standard and highly scripted three face-offs in the fall proposed by the Commission on Presidential Debates. His staff said he had not entirely ruled out other debates.
Obama is notoriously weaker off-the-cuff without a tele-prompter and fears open, free wheeling face-to-face one-to-one debates will expose his inexperience putting his carefully scripted campaign at risk. The Obama campaign denied it was dodging the senior senator,
This week Obama has been dancing after being accused by a decorated senior Army physician of deserting wounded troops while in Germany because he couldn’t exploit them politically; Israel Media accused him of sacrilege after it was learned he intentionally used his prayer at the Wailing Wall as a PR stunt, and thrice said McCain would try to scare voter by pointing out his race. Obama later retreated from his accusation against McCain.
McCain’s camp continues to insist Obama should drop all pretext and face McCain man-to-man on the issues. Some are urging ads attacking Obama for evading the free wheeling classis Lincoln-Douglas format to force Obama into the open. Obama has also rejected McCain’s challenge for a series of town hall meetings.
The commission debates are set for Sept. 26 in Oxford, Miss., three weeks after the Republican National Convention concludes Sept. 4. The other presidential debates are set for Oct. 7 and Oct. 15 and the vice presidential debate for Oct. 2.
According to a national Gallup poll released on Saturday the presidential race is tied at 44% each, and Obama is exhibiting great caution that he does not slip behind McCain as a recent Gallup poll showed on the eve of the Democrat Nominating Convention in Denver August 25-28.