All Posts Tagged With: "bradley"

The “Bubba Effect” is a racist pejorative reference to the Bradley / Wilder phenomenon referring mostly to white rural and southern voters. Others say so-called “White Guilt” will overide any of these so-called effects.

The Sept. 15-17 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with a 48% to 44% lead over John McCain among registered voters, marking the first time that Obama has held a statistically significant lead in two weeks.

With a 14-point lead among women and a 91-point lead among blacks, Democrat Sen. Barack Obama leads Republican Sen. John McCain 49 - 45 percent among likely voters nationwide, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today

This compares to a 47%-42% Sen. Obama lead in an August 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Zogby polling views the race 47%-45% for Obama and Rasmussen Reports that polls only likely voters, tags it tied at 48% each.

Democrats allege worry about the so-called Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder or Bubba effect, referring to a discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.

Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor’s race despite being far ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of white voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent. A sometimes used test is to ask a white voter how they’d vote and how their neighbor might vote, often resulting in different answers.

Tom Bradley was the black five term Los Angeles Democrat mayor (1973-1993) who ran twice for California Governor and was defeated both times by Republican George Deukmejian.

Lawrence Douglas Wilder was the first black Governor of Virginia 1990-1994 and was elected Mayor of Richmond in 2005. The so-called Wilder / Bradley effect was blamed for Bobby Jindal’s Defeat in the Louisiana governor’s race in 2003 but, of course does not factor into his election as Louisiana’s chief executive in 2007 after the state’s botched handling of Hurricane Katrina. Jindal is a 32-year-old native born Indian-American who was rumored to be on McCain VP list.