Iran
Middle East Miscellany
Israel - Iran - Syria - Hezbollah - Saudi Cleric - Russia
Israeli surgeons are trying to save a 12-year-old Iranian boy’s life after failed brain surgery in Tehran, and a referral from a Turkish hospital.. “When a child’s life is at stake, religion and origin play no part,” said Israel Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit. “If we can help, we are more than willing to do so.” (Ynet News)
Sheikh Muhammad al-Habadan, a Muslim cleric in Saudi Arabia, has called on women to wear a full veil that reveals only one eye. He told the Muslim satellite channel al-Majd that showing both eyes encouraged women to use eye make-up to look seductive.
A series of private-sector strikes has forced the Iranian government to suspend the implementation of a new sales tax, marking a setback for President Ahmadinejad. Angry shopkeepers in the central bazaar in the city of Esfahan refused Wednesday for the second straight day to open stores, and the strike spread to Tehran, Mashad and Tabriz. Inflation rose in September to 29.4%, according to Iran’s Central Bank. (Washington Post)
Hezbollah’s arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh, who was blown to smithereens in a car bombing in Damascus 8-months ago, has been succeeded by a senior Iranian intelligence official, an Italian newspaper reported Thursday, indicating an Iranian determination to consolidate its control over the Lebanese group. A report in Italy’s Corriere della Sera, Hezoullah’s new chief military commander is Muhammad Riza Zahdi, aka Hassan Mahdawi, who in the late 1980s served in the Iranian Embassy in Beirut.
Zahdi will be in charge of coordinating weapons smuggling to Hizbullah from Syria as well as the construction of military positions in southern Lebanon, and will likely have a lot of trouble getting life insurance.
The 1983 bombings of the U.S. embassy and the Marine barracks in Beirut were the first time Islamic suicide bombers had attacked significant American targets. 241 American servicemen: 220 Marines, 18 Navy personnel and three Army soldiers were killed when 12,000 pounds of explosives were packed into a Mercedes Benz trusk and detonated. Sixty more Americans were injured.
Our timid response created an aura of impunity that the Islamic extremists sensed and pursued all the way to the 9/11 attacks, which finally awakened America.
The U.S. intelligence community compiled an all-sources damage assessment after the Marine barracks bombing. They studied signals, overhead, and human intelligence and concluded the evidence was overpowering that Iran had been behind it. In August 2005, Mustafa Mohammad-Najjar was named the new defense minister of Iran. Najjar’s previous assignment as senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps earned him a reputation of ruthlessness and ideological loyalty. In 1983, he commanded the 1,500-man expeditionary force sent to Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. This Iranian unit provided security, planning, training, and operational support for the truck bombings on 23 October 1983.
Asked if Russia had promised Israel prime minister Ehud Olmert not to deliver S-300 systems to Iran, the foreign ministry spokesman in Moscow said Thursday, Oct. 9: “We have already repeatedly stated at the very highest political levels that we do not intend to deliver those types of arms to countries which are located in troubled regions.” He carefully avoided mentioning Iran or Syria.
There is increasing speculation that delivery of the S-300 anti-aircraft, anti-cruise missile radar system could provoke an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities before Russia’s system becomes fully effective.
Next President Faces Hobson’s Choice - Iran or Iran
“Everything is coming to a head in the Middle East.”
No matter who is elected president in November, former CIA officer Robert Baer has no doubt about what will be topping his agenda: Iran. “Everything is coming to a head in the Middle East,” Baer tells Newsmax. “The days of messing around with Iran are over. We’ve been kicking this can down the road for 30 years, and now we’re at the end of the road.”
Iran he says, wants to be the “citadel of Islam.” He warns that Iran is probably months, if not weeks, away from war with Israel.
With Chinese Silkworm missiles pointed toward the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has the ability to cripple the world economy in a matter of minutes by shutting down the flow of oil. That’s even before it gains a nuclear missile.
Like it or not, Baer argues Iran is now a superpower with perhaps even more ability to alter America’s destiny than China or Russia. The next U. S. president will face stark choices including:
- 1. stagger toward an eventual war with Iran or try to negotiate with a new Persian empire,
- 2. continue to “kick the can,” let Israel handle Iran, and reap the consequences.
“The Israelis are going to tell this the next administration: ‘You guys do something or we’ve got to do it.’
“And that’s exactly what we don’t want to do: push the Israelis into a corner,” he adds. “Because they’ve got guts. We either have to have the b***s to take on Iran and knock them down a peg, or we have to have the guts to have a serious sit-down.”
He argues Iran is inspired to re-create a Persian empire throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. Iran aspires to be the center of not only Shia Islam but also all Islam, with the goal of eventually taking over the holy sites of Mecca and Medina from Saudi Arabia. That process is already pretty far along.
In Lebanon, it has created a state within a state led by the powerful Hezbollah, created by Iranian agents in the 1980s. It has made key alliances with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, has top allies in the Iraqi government, and is pressuring Saudi Arabia to share control of its holy places.
Iran has evolved from a terrorist state to a calculating Machiavellian power its motives are clear-headed and logical once its history is understood.
Iran is not homicidal maniacs like the Sunni terrorists or Osama Bin Laden. Osama bin Laden is a nihilist. The Iran has a mission, a goal. They want:
- stable markets in oil.
- to open up trade.
- a big say in Iraq.
- to stop the oppression of the Shia in Saudi Arabia.
- implementation of (United Nations Security Council) Resolution 242,” which calls for the Israelis to pull back from the West Bank and other territories seized in the Six Day War of 1967.
Baer doesn’t take Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his messianic, Holocaust-denying rhetoric seriously. He is largely a figurehead. Power rests with the country’s supreme leader and a small core of religious leaders in the Council of Guardians and the Assembly of Experts. He’s like a crazy congressman on the left or the right — nobody pays much attention to him.”
Baer is not saying that U.S. differences with the new Iranian superpower are resolvable. Nor is he saying the U.S. must not push back against Iran in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere.
War may be inevitable but should at a time of America’s choosing, not Iran’s. “If we have to get in a war let’s make sure it’s intentional, not accidental, one that we can control,” Baer says. “But if we have to get into a war with Iran, let’s at least try to determine what the hell is going on in Tehran.”
That’s the message of Baer’s new book, “The Devil We Know: Dealing with the New Iranian Superpower.” Baer came to national prominence after he left the CIA in 1997 and wrote the New York Times bestseller “See No Evil,” detailing almost two decades of intrigue he saw firsthand while working for the agency. “See No Evil” and another Baer bestseller, “Sleeping with the Devil,” were the basis for the Oscar-winning film “Syriana.”
Russia Increases Spying On Israel Giving Intelligence to Iran and Syria.
Russia believes America is about to be propelled into an extraordinary shift toward socialism-isolationism ideas it can exploit.
Russia has intensified its spying on Israel and transferring that intelligence on Israel’s strategic capabilities to Iran and Syria. “(I)f the Russians help the Syrians get information, and the Syrians constantly pass it on to Hezbollah, it is a reasonable supposition that the information gathered by the Russians also reaches Hezbollah’s hands,” Col. Ram Dor, chief of information security in the Israeli military, said.
Russia has been monitoring Israel’s military and vital facilities via land, air and sea assets Russian warships are now routinely basing and staging out of Syrian’s Mediterranean naval base at Tartus that has now been converted 
to a permanent Russian naval base.
Officials said Russia has increased espionage operations inside Israel. They said Russian agents have been directed to identify and target young officers in the Israeli military and intelligence community. That is particularly insidious because there are more than 1 million Russian speakers linked to the former Soviet Union in Israel. Officials said Russian intelligence tracks emigrants who work in the Israeli military and defense industry and traces family inside Russia the purpose is to bludgeon their support by threatening family members still inside Russia.
The Russian intelligence on Israel is being relayed to the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militia via Damascus. The Syrians share the intelligence that they gather with Hezbollah, and the other way around,” Dor said. “This we know, because we know how to build a mirror-image that shows us what enemy intelligence knows about us.”
At the same time it was disclosed that Syrian President Bashar Assad has ordered the formation of an Iranian-trained praetorian guard to protect him from assassination which would unravel the Syria-Iranian-Russian triumvirate.
Russia’s expansionist agenda is driven by Putin’s Czarist-like personal ambitions funded by surging oil and natural gas income enabling a 23% increase in military spending, and accelerated by his view that America is about to be propelled into an extraordinary shift toward socialist-isolationist ideas that Russia can exploit.
17 Planes Airlift Anti-missile Radar for Installation Near Beersheba, Israel
Seventeen huge US Air Force C-5 Galaxy and C-17 Globemaster III transports have ferried the high-powered FBX-T anti-missile radar to Israel’s Nevatim Air Base south of Beersheba it was announced Saturday, September 27, 2008. Military sources report that the transportable radar surveillance/forward-based X-band radar was accompanied by some 120 American European Command personnel. The area of its deployment at the Negev base has been fenced off and made off-limits to non-American personnel.
The radars can detect, track and provide command and control for anti-missile interceptors with a very high probability of destroying the missiles before they strike their targets. The systems are said to already be operating. Or soon will be.
In 2006 an earlier version of the system was installed in Japan and has operated there since. Fixed site radars are cited in Greenland, Massachusetts and Florida and interceptors are also sited in Alaska and California, and seaborne versions are operated in the Pacific from an Alaskan base. It is this system of radars and interceptors that Poland and the Czech Republic have agreed to emplace systems to the chagrin of Russia.
Beersheba (Hebrew: בְּאֵר שֶׁבַע, Be’er Sheva, Arabic: بئر السبع, is located on the northern edge of the Negev desert 115 kilometres (71 mi) south-east of Tel Aviv and 120 kilometres (75 mi) south-west of Jerusalem. Obviously it is remotely cited because it is a strategic target that would likely be attacked in any missile exchange.
Beersheba is an ancient site, occupied sine the 4th millennium BC it is mentioned in the Book of Genesis in connection with Abraham the Patriarch and his pact with Abimelech. Isaac built an altar in Beersheba (Genesis 26:23-33). Jacob had his dream about a stairway to heaven in the area of Beersheba. (Genesis 28:10-15 and 46:1-7). The prophet Elijah took refuge in Beersheba when Jezebel ordered him killed (I Kings 19:3).
In contemporary history it is famous on October 31, 1917, when 800 soldiers of the Australian 4th and Light Horse Brigade charged the Turkish trenches, overran them on horseback with sabers and captured the wells of Beersheba. It was the last successful cavalry charge in British military history. In 1948, during the Israeli War of Independence it was the site of a fierce battle when Egy[tian forces were surrounded and forced to surrender. Now it is the site of the spearpoint of Israel’s defense against missile attack.
IAEA AWAKENS FROM LONG SLUMBER
Tehran could reach weapons capacity in as little as six months
Mohamed El-Baradei, head of the Vienna, Austria-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was quoted in the Friday edition of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily as saying that that Iran is one of several countries on the “path” to possessing the ingredients for making a nuclear weapon.
He also said there is “a whole list of countries that posses the ingredients to assemble an atomic weapon in a matter of a few months, that possess fissile material or the technical means to create it.”
Israel says the Islamic Republic could have enough nuclear material to make its first bomb within a year. The U.S. estimates Tehran is at least two years away from that stage.
But David Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security closely tracks suspect secret proliferators has said Tehran could reach weapons capacity in as little as six months through uranium enrichment.
Albright thinks Iran has produced nearly 1,000 pounds of low-enriched uranium, said the report _ close to what Albright says is the 1,500-pound minimum needed to produce the 45-60 pounds needed for a simple nuclear bomb under optimal conditions.
Marriott Bombing’s Unintended Consequence
Morale and will of the Pakistani military a serious question mark, and elements openly support the Taliban and al Qaeda, and are unwilling to fight their countrymen.
An unintended consequence of the devastating bombing at the Marriott Hotel in the heart of Islamabad last Saturday, September 20 has been provoking the Pakistani government to talk tough about taking on the Taliban and al Qaeda forces nested in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The latest attack, that killed more than 50 Pakistanis and foreigners and wounded over 270, is being described as “Pakistan’s 9-11.”
Whether or not Pakistan can deliver on its tough talk or not is a matter of considerable debate inside and outside of Pakistan. That could start to be answered soon as Pakistan news sources are reporting major operation have been underway since the 23rd.
The Taliban / al Qaeda forces are not a rag tag bunch but a well armed force capable of fighting at the battalion level with good communications and weapons that Pakistan admits is often better they their own.
Pakistan has deployed 100,000 troops into the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The morale and will of the Pakistani military and intelligence services remains a serious question mark. Elements of the Inter-Service Intelligence are known to openly support the Taliban and al Qaeda, and portions of the military are either sympathetic to the Taliban or unwilling to fight their countrymen.
The Pakistani government, with its new leader, can rant and rave but unless it’s military has the will that is just worthless nattering.
Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in the far northeast. In 1947 it became an independent Muslim state with four provinces and federally administered tribal areas now controlled by radical Taliban and al Qaeda forces.
It is the sixth most populous country in the world and has the second largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia. Originally it was connected with East Pakistan on the other side of India that became Bangladesh in 1971.
During the Soviet-Afghan War Pakistan covertly supported the Afghan mujahideen and even shot down several intruding Soviet bombers.
In 1999, Pakistan was embroiled with India in the Kargil conflict and fought for several months in nearby Kashmir.
India has nuclear weapons detonated its first device in 1974. Pakistan detonated a fission device in 1998 and is believed to have numerous nuclear bombs now making it the only nuclear armed Muslim nation
Mysterious Iranian Ship and Cargo Hijacked By Pirates
Nature of the toxic cargo unknown — several sickened and have died.
Pirates have hijacked a mysterious Iranian freighter and are holding it and its mysterious cargo hostage off of the north coast of Somalia. Iran is hopping around like a June bug on a hot griddle denying the ship’s cargo of chemical weapons and small arms was destined for Muslim terrorists in Eritrea.
The 44,000 dead weight tonnage ship is owned by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) - a state-owned company run by the Iranian military, and even without its cargo could command hundred of thousands of dollars ransom but now that the weapons are the issue it is worth millions.
Manifest and other documents on board the MV Iran Deyanat say it set sail from Nanjing, China, at the end of July and, according to its manifest, planned to travel to Rotterdam, where it would unload 42,500 tons of iron ore and “industrial products” purchased by a German client. Iran is notorious for falsifying such documents.
About 100 pirates captured the ship, and brought it to an anchorage and are holding it. There have been reports that several have sickened and died. The exact nature of the toxic cargo is either unknown or nobody is talking. One bizarre rumor says the U. S. will ransom the ship.
Iran Considering Preemptive Attacks On Gulf States And Israel
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been clamoring for a war option should Israel and the United States continue planning
Iran’s top leadership is at odds about whether or not to attack Israel between late 2008 and 2009. Western intelligence sources say Iran has been preparing militarily while debating the feasibility of an offensive against Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been clamoring for a war option should Israel and the United States continue preparations for a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“Ahmadinejad has been arguing that Iran has never enjoyed such favorable conditions for an attack,” a senior intelligence source said according to a report from London. “The Iranian assessment is that the European Union is dependent on foreign energy notably Russia’s natural gas, the Arabs have retreated into submission, Iraq could be annexed, Turkey is paralyzed and Israel is weak. The only threat is [U.S. President George] Bush.”
Ahmadinejad is said to be opposed by a group led by former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The sources said Rafsanjani has warned that Iran must consider a suspension of its uranium enrichment program to prevent a massive Israeli and U.S. air strike.
“Rafsanjani has not argued for surrender,” another intelligence source said. “His argument is that Iran should conduct a tactical withdrawal until the United States pulls out from Iraq. Then, Iran could resume its nuclear weapons program and threaten the region.”
The sources said the Iranian leadership could resolve the debate in late 2008. They said Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been monitoring the nation’s combat readiness, tested in a series of massive military exercises.
“Over the next few weeks, the Iranian leadership could reach a determination whether Teheran would be ready for a total war,” the source said.
Yesterday Ahmadinejad said the U. S. is ruled by Zionist murderers, and again threatened Israel’s existence. The U. N. called his vile rhetoric as not helpful.
Ahmadinejad At U. N. More Bluster
Iranian President Blames U. S. Military Intervention for Banking Imbroglio
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continued his routine anti-American tirade during his visit to the United Nations in New York City Tuesday adding to his usual lecture his opinion of high finance and ranting about the current U. S. banking imbroglio blaming it on U. S. foreign military exploits.
Hundreds protested Ahmadinejad’s appearance and speech, and the U. S. delegation walked out as he prepared to speak. Before his address he told National Public Radio Iran did not wish confrontation with the U. S. or anyone but that it has to defend itself. Hanging over his visit is Iran’s continued nuclear weapon’s development program; Iran’s threats to destroy Israel, and Israel’s promise to prevent a nuclear armed Iran. Looming over the entire region and world is Iran’s effort at coercion by warning it will strangle oil supplies by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.
On June 29, 2008, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammed Jafari, stated that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would seal off the Strait of Hormuz, thereby wreaking havoc in oil markets.
On July 8, 2008, Ali Shirazi, a mid-level clerical aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted by the student news agency ISNA as saying to Revolutionary Guards, “The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran. If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and U.S. shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran’s first targets and they will be burned.”
In July dozens of US and foreign navys’ ships conducted Operation Brimstone practicing in littoral operations to keep the Strait open. The U. S. and allies would keep the Strait open.
On January 23, 1980 President Jimmy Carter decreed that any effort to close the Persian Gulf would be an attack on America’s vital national interest and repelled by all means including military force. Practically that means any effort to close the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is the only sea route for Persian Gulf oil at its narrowest is 21 miles (34 km) wide bounded on the north by Iran and south by Oman Sea traffic move along two 3 mile wide lanes. There was a series of naval stand-offs between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz occurred in December 2007 and January 2008.
The most serious incident was on 18 April 1988, the U.S. Navy waged a one-day battle against Iranian forces in and around the strait. The battle, dubbed Operation Praying Mantis by the U.S. side, was launched in retaliation for the 14 April mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58). U.S. forces sank two Iranian warships, Joshan and as many as six armed speedboats in the engagement.
War “Unavoidable”, Lt Gen Yaalon
In a briefing to the Israeli cabinet, Director of Israeli Military Intelligence Brig. Gen. Baidatz dramatically revised the timetable for Iranian nuclear weapons capability. With 1 1/2 tons of enriched uranium already and 4000 centrifuges [no peaceful purpose] whirring the general states that Iran is “on the brink” of weapons capability. As reported by Debka, Lt. Gen. Yaalon stated that “an Israel Iran war seems unavoidable”.
With no power comitting to interfering with their own troops, all major powers, despite helium filled rhetoric at the useless UN, have approved of the coming war by their silence.
Marshall Ivan would add that it is likely that the Iranian networks in Europe and the US will make Al Qaida look like kindergarteners. There will be casualties in the West—but hopefully nothing like an Iranian nuke would present.
Germany Joins Russia and China Against More Iran Sanctions
Is Democrat VP nominee Joe Biden’s comment that Israel will have to accept a nuclear armed Iran indicative of coming U. S. policy
Russia, China and Germany refuse to countenance tougher sanctions against Iran notwithstanding the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report from Vienna that its inspections of suspect activities and covert projects were stalled by Tehran’s non-cooperation.
They rejected US intelligence data backing up the IAEA report and tell the international community that the US and Israel were furnished with more intelligence confirming Iran’s covert nuclear projects and the clandestine partnership between Tehran, Damascus and Pyongyang. Last week the IAEA gave a closed door briefing to its 35 members nations that Iran was retrofitting it Shehab missiles to carry nuclear warheads. The Shehab-3, a medium-range, liquid-propellant, road-mobile ballistic missile, was generally believed to have a range of around 1300km or 808 miles. allowing northern Israel to be hit from a southern Iran launch point.
The action raises the likelihood that Israel will have to act to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons production capabilities.
Israel is still rumbling, and others have taken note of Democrat VP nominee Joe Biden’s comment that Israel will have to accept a nuclear armed Iran as indicative of coming U. S. policy were Obama elected.
At the same time Israeli military and naval commanders were taken by surprise by Rear Adm. Andrei Baranov’s disclosure that 10 Russian warships are already anchored at the Syrian port of Tartus,
Israel Election Consequence Clear As Mud
Livni Must Form Coalition Government Or Call National Elections
Tzipy Livni has evidently has just become head of Israel’s Kadima party (pending finalization of the most narrow election results as voter refuted polling results) and has a chance, at least, to form a moderate government that will pursue the Palestinian peace process.
Tzipy Livni - Tzipora Malka “Tzipi” Livni (Hebrew: ציפורה מלכּה “ציפי” לבני) was born July 8,1958 in Tel Aviv, Israel. She served as a lieutenant in the IDF and worked for the Mossad intelligence organization for almost two years, acting as a “house sitter” for a safe house in Paris. She resigned in August 1983 to marry and finish her law studies. She graduated from the Bar Ilan University Faculty of Law, and practiced public and commercial law for ten years. She lives in Tel Aviv with her husband and their two children.
She was elected to the Knesset in 1999. After the Likud assumed power in 2001, Livni was appointed Minister of Regional Cooperation, and then was Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Minister of Immigrant Absorption and Minister of Housing and Construction. On October 1, 2005, she was appointed Minister of Justice after several months acting in that position and then served as Foreign Minister. On 4 May 2006, Livni became Deputy Prime Minister and retained the position of Foreign Minister, while resigning her post as Minister of Justice.
Livni escaped virtually unscathed from the massive wave of public criticism that followed the Second Lebanon War, She had led the quest for a diplomatic solution, though UN Secuirty Council Resolution 1701, obtained about a month of fighting, was not much different from the offer made by the Lebanese in the first week of the war. Critics of the resolution, which has allowed massive rearming of the Hezbollah blame Livni for that.
Pre-election opinion surveys predicted that Livni enjoyed a safe lead over rival Transportation Minister and former Defense Minister and IDF Chief of Staff, Shaul Mofaz, and exit polls seemed to confirm a decisive victory. All those polls were wrong and Livni won by less than 1%. If Livni succeeds in forming a new government, she will be Israel’s second female Prime Minister, after Golda Meir (1898-1983).
Livni faces two choices: a.) try to form a coalition government or b.) go to national elections. She’ll likely at least try the former but it is uncertain she can accomplish it in a meaningful way. Embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he’ll resign if Livni can form a new government, and only if - Israeli’s are tired of Olmert’s legal troubles and that give Livni an edge. If an election is held the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and its potential right-wing coalition partners would likely win a majority based on opinion surveys.
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Persian: محمود احمدینژاد, mæhmu-d-e æhmædi-neʒɑd threw sand in the gears again saying that Israel would not survive. Next week Ahmadinejad will speak at the United Nation’s General Assembly in New York City while pro-Jewish forces protest. About the only thing Israeli’s agree on is that Iran can not be allowed to build nuclear bombs that it appears closer than ever to doing.
Last week it was revealed that Iran was modifying missiles to carry nuclear warheads. Those missiles are known to be able to reach Israel.
U. S. Adversaries Being Crippled By Falling Oil Prices
Collapsing Oil Prices More Important That Sanction On Iran and Others
Just two months ago, spiking petroleum prices were emboldening confrontational oil exporters such as Venezuela, Russia and Iran. The oil price collapse is stressing their plans and forcing reconsiderations. Some analyst, for instance, estimate that Russia is spending at a rate only supportable by oil prices of at least $110 a barrel dimming their financing prospects.
Congress belatedly sensitive to voters’ unhappiness, passed an energy bill that would allow oil drilling in new offshore areas- albeit the wrong ones, trim oil company tax breaks, ease the way for oil shale development and help finance alternative energy sources.
The world’s total energy costs have dropped by more than $4 billion a day. That will hurt government budgets from Tehran to Texas, but it will ease burdens for countless others. The United States, which spent $51.4 billion on oil imports in July, accounting for most of its trade deficit, is on track to spend much less than that this month, reducing pressure on the dollar, the trade deficit and inflation.
Long range economic forecast had projected $94 a barrel by 2009 - it stood at $91.15 a barrel Tuesday. ENI, the Italian oil giant thinks prices could fall as low as what it costs to produce the world’s most expensive oil, citing the $65- to $70-a-barrel cost of developing Canadian tar sands.
OPEC hardliners advocated a new $100 floor on prices, but Saudi Arabia last week resisted a call to trim its output to comply with official OPEC quotas. Now the Saudis may be reconsidering. Sky high oil prices helped President Hugo Chávez pay for nationalizations of banks, the Caracas electric utility, a portion of foreign oil interests, radio stations and the local plant of an international cement firm. Other analysts said high prices may have emboldened Russia to invade Georgia, and Iran to continue to defy international calls to abandon its nuclear program.
America’s adversaries including Russia, Iran, Venezuela and the other usual suspects are backing and filling with both hands. Falling gasoline prices are driving optimism among American voters buoyed by the price board at the corner gasoline station will impact the November U. S. Presidential election and Iran’s June 2009 Presidential election too. In the former to help McCain be elected whom Iran disfavors and in the latter to forment trouble for anti-U. S. interests in Iran and elsewhere.
But, falling oil prices are also a whip saw; for instance: T. Boone Pickens has lost a bundle and altering his alternative energy ideas; can companies are worried lower fuel costs will be a disincentive for consumers to pay premums for fuel efficient vehicles, and development of tax sands and shale will be pushed back.
Of course airlines and trucking companies are happy, as are cos=nsumers depending on fuel oil to heat their homes this winter.
Long term forecasters are talking about $65 per barrel oil in 2012 effectively below $60 now
Israel Gets 1,000 Bunker Buster Bombs from U. S.
In a “Depends” moment for Iran the U. S. has sold 1,000 bunker-busting smart bombs to Israel.
The sale is reported to include: 1,000 GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs (SDB1), 150 BRU-61/A SDB1 Mounting Carriages, 30 Guided Test Vehicles, 2 BRU-61/A SDB Instrumented Carriages, 7 Jettison Test Vehicles, 1 Separation Test Vehicle, 2 Reliability and Assessment Vehicles, 12 Common Munitions BIT and Reprogramming Equipment with Test Equipment and Adapters, 3 SDB1 Weapons Simulators, and 2 Load Crew Trainers. He sale also includes containers, flight test integration, spare and repair parts, support equipment, personnel training and equipment, publications and technical data, U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, and other related elements of logistics support.
The GBU-28, is a laser-guided weapon whose warhead can burrow through more than 20 feet of reinforced concrete and up to 100 feet of dirt and rock striking within a few feet of its aim point. The Guided Bomb Unit-28 (GBU-28) is a special weapon developed for penetrating hardened site located deep underground.
The GBU-28
is a 5,000-pound laser-guided conventional munition that uses a 4,400-pound penetrating warhead. The bombs are modified Army artillery tubes, weigh 4,637 pounds, and contain 630 pounds of high explosives. Once the gadget has penetrated the target does it detonate with devastating effect.
- Each device consists of an approximately 16-foot (5-meter) section of artillery barrel that is 14.5 inches (37 cm) in diameter. Artillery barrels are made of extremely strong hardened steel so that they can withstand the repeated blasts of artillery shells when they are fired.
- Inside this steel casing is nearly 650 pounds (295 kg) of tritonal explosive. Tritonal is a mixture of TNT (80 percent) and aluminum powder (20 percent). The aluminum improves the brisance of the TNT — the speed at which the explosive develops its maximum pressure. The addition of aluminum makes tritonal about 18 percent more powerful than TNT alone.
- Attached to the front of the barrel is a laser-guidance assembly. Either a spotter on the ground or in the bomber illuminates the target with a laser, and the bomb homes in on the illuminated spot. The guidance assembly steers the bomb with fins that are part of the assembly.
- Attached to the end of the barrel are stationary fins that provide stability during flight.
- The finished bomb, known as the GBU-28 or the BLU-113, is 19 feet (5.8 meters) long, 14.5 inches (36.8 cm) in diameter and weighs 4,400 pounds (1,996 kg).
Iran Has Contempt for UN Moves Full Speed Ahead On Nukes
Iranian Air Force Conducting Nationwide Exercises
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) reports no progress in its efforts to establish whether or not Iran is developing nuclear warheads, enriching uranium for military purposes, testing nuclear explosives or building nuclear-capable missiles.
The draft report handed out Monday, Sept. 15, to IAEA board members in Vienna attributes this lack of progress to Iran’s non-cooperation with the inquiry. Observers say the IAEA has been laughably ineffective.
Iranian sources report that the Tehran administration has never been more contemptuous of the UN, international diplomacy and potential sanctions, certain the prospect of a US and Israeli military strike on its nuclear facilities is receding further day by day.
Iranian official sources report that an air force drill began Monday, Sept. 15, in half of the country’s 30 provinces. The commander of Iran’s aerial defense, Brig. Gen. Ahmed Mighani said that any enemies attacking the Islamic Republic would regret it.
Of late, certain influential voices have been raised in Israel arguing against the need of military action to cut down Iran’s covert nuclear bomb plans. President Shimon Peres, for instance, maintains that tough economic sanctions would “do the job.” The latest IAEA report shows this argument is invalid and the U. N. is impotent to deal with Iran.
Much of what is and will happen in the region depends upon the outcome of the U. S. presidential election. Iran is disheartened of late because of McCain’s surge in the polls. Israeli contend they can wait if a McCain election seems likely but, is more likely to attack if Obama appears likely to be elected.
Bush Backs Away From Israel
One of the likely differences likely to emanate from the election results this year would be if and how the US would help Israel defend herself in the event she believes Iran is serious about an attack on Israel. Seems the US has pulled back a bit and likely McCain and Obama would handle in different manners. Obama less likely to allow Israel airspace or air refueling capacity in favor or more diplomacy and McCain to allow either or both.
(Anybody hear the drums of war beginning to beat?)
Last update - 14:34 11/09/2008
Israel asks U.S. for arms, air corridor to attack Iran
By Amos Harel and Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondents
The security aid package the United States has refused to give Israel for
the past few months out of concern that Israel would use it to attack
nuclear facilities in Iran included a large number of “bunker-buster” bombs,
permission to use an air corridor to Iran, an advanced technological system
and refueling planes.
Officials from both countries have been discussing the Israeli requests over
the past few months. Their rejection would make it very difficult for Israel
to attack Iran, if such a decision is made.
About a month ago, Haaretz reported that the Bush administration had turned
down an Israeli request for certain security items that could upgrade
Israel’s capability to attack Iran. The U.S. administration reportedly saw
the request as a sign preparations were moving ahead for an Israeli attack
on Iran.
Diplomatic and security sources indicated to Haaretz that the list of
components Israel included:
Bunker-buster GBU-28 bombs: In 2005, the U.S. said it was supplying these
bombs to Israel. In August 2006, The New York Times reported that the U.S.
had expedited the dispatch of additional bombs at the height of the Second
Lebanon War. The bombs, which weigh 2.2 tons each, can penetrate six meters
of reinforced concrete. Israel appears to have asked for a relatively large
number of additional bunker-busters, and was turned down.
Air-space authorization: An attack on Iran would apparently require passage
through Iraqi air space. For this to occur, an air corridor would be needed
that Israeli fighter jets could cross without being targeted by American
planes or anti-aircraft missiles. The Americans also turned down this
request. According to one account, to avoid the issue, the Americans told
the Israelis to ask Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for permission,
along the lines of “If you want, coordinate with him.”
Refueling planes. An air attack on Iran would require refueling of fighter
jets on the way back. According to a report on Channel 10 a few weeks ago,
the U.S. rejected an Israeli request for more advanced refueling tankers, of
the Boeing 767 model.
The refueling craft the Israel Air Force now uses are very outmoded,
something that make it difficult to operate at long distances from Israel.
Even if the Americans were to respond favorably to such a request, the
process could take a few years.
The IDF recently reported that it is overhauling a Boeing 707 that
previously served as the prime minister’s plane to serve as a refueling
aircraft.
Advanced technological systems. The Israeli sources declined to give any
details on this point.
The Israeli requests were discussed during President George W. Bush’s visit
to Israel in May, as well as during Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s visit to
Washington in July. In a series of meetings at a very senior level,
following Bush’s visit, the Americans made clear to the Israelis that for
now they are sticking to the diplomatic option to halt the Iranian nuclear
project and that Jerusalem does not have a green light from Washington for
an attack on Iran.
However, it appears that in compensation for turning down Israel’s
“offensive” requests, the U.S. has agreed to strengthen its defensive
systems.
During the Barak visit, it was agreed that an advanced U.S. radar system
would be stationed in the Negev, and the order to send it was made at that
time. The system would double to 2,000 kilometers the range of
identification of missiles launched from the direction of Iran, and would be
connected to an American early warning system.
The system is to be operated by American civilians as well as two American
soldiers. This would be the first permanent U.S. force on Israeli soil.
A senior security official said the Americans were preparing “with the
greatest speed” to make good on their promise, and the systems could be
installed within a month.
The Israeli security source said he believed Washington was moving ahead
quickly on the request because it considered it very important to restrain
Israel at this time.
At the beginning of the year, the Israeli leadership still considered it a
reasonable possibility that Bush would decide to attack Iran before the end
of his term.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in private discussions, even raised the
possibility that the U.S. was considering an attack in the transition period
between the election in November and the inauguration of the new president
in January 2009.
However, Jerusalem now assumes that likelihood of this possibility is close
to nil, and that Bush will use the rest of his time in office to strengthen
what he defines as the Iraqi achievement, following the relative success of
American efforts there over the past year and a half.