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il prices are likely to keep falling until well into next year and could temporarily reach $25 a barrel before climbing again in the second half of 2009 U.S. Bank Merrill Lynch predicted Thursday. If that does happen gasoline in the USA could fall below $1 a gallon.

According to an article in Newsmax.com and in its invetors newsletter Merrill Lynch recently cut its forecast for the average price of U.S. crude oil futures and North Sea Brent crude oil to $50 a barrel from a previous estimate for both crudes of $90.

Oil prices hit a peak above $147 a barrel last July but have fallen more than $100 since then as the severity of the global economic downturn has become clear.

Merrill Lynch said a combination of high oil prices and high leverage had proven dangerous for the global economy. Speculators also drove the price of oil to stratospheric levels but they have been mostly driven from the market and there is serious talk of restrictions to curtail their dangerous, detrimental impact on the world economy. Gasoline’s fall from over $4 per gallon to about $2 per gallon is estimated to be providing a $300 billion savings for U. S. consumer already in 2008.

Merril Lynch. now owned by Bank of America, is pessimistic about 2009 saying, “In the short-run, global oil demand growth will likely take a further beating as banks continue to cut credit to consumers and corporations,” it said. “We now expect an outright contraction in global oil demand in 2009.”

The wildcard is how far and fast China’s economy will cool in 2009.

Flummadiddle or flumadiddle (flum-uh-DID-l) noun: 1. Nonsense. 2. Something worthless. ETYMOLOGY:Of uncertain origin, apparently from flummery (a dessert; nonsense).

ecent terror attacks in Mumbai (Bombay) India has focused attention on India and Pakistan, neighboring nuclear powers and increased tensions.  Intelligence services are reporting the neighbors have not changed their nuclear posture or made overt military moves since terror attacks in Mumbai despite heightened political tensions.

“Militarily, the temperature is pretty low right now,” say analysts.

Pakistan did move some aircraft and air defense units to the border after the Indians pointed a finger at Pakistan as the source of the attack. But the Pakistanis have not moved ground forces, and “on the nuclear side nothing at all,” officials say.

“The Indians have showed great restraint, militarily. As a matter of fact, no change (in posture), There is diplomatic activity and political activity. That is where it is happening right now.”

The military restraint displayed by both sides is in sharp contrast with the charged political atmosphere in the wake of attacks by heavily armed gunmen on luxury hotels and other sites around Mumbai.

India has charged that the attacks, which left 188 people dead, were carried out by a Pakistani-based militant group, Lashkar e-Taiba, and is demanding that Pakistan turn over 20 suspected terrorists. Pakistan has said it will not turn over the suspects. There appears to be credible evidence that the terror attacks originated in Karachi, and may have trained there.

Pakistan has built 24-48 (Highly Enriched Uranium) HEU-based nuclear warheads, and it ha produced 585-800 kg of HEU, enough for 30-55 weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear warheads are based on an implosion design that uses a solid core of highly enriched uranium and requires an estimated 15-20 kg of material per warhead. Pakistan is believed to also have produced a small but unknown quantity of weapons grade plutonium, which is sufficient for an estimated 3-5 nuclear weapons.

India has a stockpile of approximately 30-35 nuclear warheads. It has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for 50-90 nuclear weapons and a smaller but unknown quantity of weapons-grade uranium. India has also tested a thermo-nuclear device (hydrogen bomb) many times more powerful than anything in the Pakistan weapons inventory.

China has 400 nuclear warheads; France 350; Israel probably 200 or so; UK 185; Russia 8,400 and the USA 10,500.

U. S. Secretary of State Rice immediately scampered to the region and held meetings both in India and Pakistan to help keep a lid on the volatile situation.

A dog weighing more than 120 pounds survived being frozen to a sidewalk overnight in Wisconsin, probably because he was insulated by layers of fat,

razil is selling 100 MAR-1 medium-range air-to-surface missiles designed to takeout air detection and defense installations to Pakistan. Brazil based Mectron makes the tactical anti-radiation weapons whose existence was kept under wraps for many years, according to Jane’s Information Group. Anti-radiation missiles fly along a radar beam and destroy its source. Most radars pulse to try to throw off such weapons but with GPS and internal radar technology once detected the missile locks-on and can hit with pinpoint accuracy whether the radar is on or off.

The timing of the announcement sparked controversy because one of Pakistan’s nearest adversaries is India although the weapons could be used to defeat Iranian systems and others too. Nevertheless Brazil and Pakistan have been scrambling and both denying it has anything to do with current tension between Pakistan and India over the Mumbai terror attacks. Brazil is pointing out that the $108 million deal was quietly made in April.

“Brazil negotiates with Pakistan, not with Pakistani terrorists,” he said. “To cancel this deal would be to attribute terrorist activities to the Pakistani government.”

It should not go unnoticed that the announcement comes coincident with the conclusions of the joint Russo-Venezuelan naval exercises and that the MAR-1 can be effective against naval targets too. Venezuelan Dictator Hugo Chavez also announced this week he will make another try next Spring to change the Constitution to make him ruler for life of what he sees as a new Bolivarian empire. Sooner or later Chavez’s ambitions will pit Brazil and others against him. Columbia borders Venezuela and is closely aligned with the USA to the chagrin of Chavez and some see that as the most likely flash point and worry the new U. S. administration will be diverted from Latin America creating a vacuum Chavez and his new Russian ally will try to fill.

A 22-year old Vero Beach, Florida man faces a domestic violence charge after authorities said he assaulted his girlfriend with a cheeseburger by smearing it on her face.

srael is reportedly making detailed plans to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities without help from the U. S. says a report in the Jerusalem Post. Israel has become convinced Iran will have a nuclear device by the end of 2009, and fears the radical Muslim state that has pledged to destroy it will attack or ensure a terror group does. Israel has consistently said it will not allow a nuclear armed Iran.

In a statement of the obvious U. N. nuclear weapons watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei says the international community has failed in its effort to halt Iran’s drive to gain nuclear weapons. “We haven’t really moved one inch toward addressing the issues,” ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told The Los Angeles Times. “I think so far the policy has been a failure.”

President Bush is known to be discouraging to Israel attacking Iran. Previously the U. S. has denied Israel codes and encryptions necessary to coordinate an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. While it is not impossible for Israel to make a unilateral attack on Iran it would be geometrically more difficult without U. S. cooperation. If the U. S. does cooperate that would invite Iranian attacks on American warships on the Gulf and forces based in the region. Regardless of the justification for such an attack it would bring down the ire of Middle East and other U. S. allies against it and Israel.

It is assumed the U. S. position rest on the hope that a new U. S. administration might be able to win concessions from Iran, and more support from the U. N. and abroad. There is general pessimism that Iran can be dissuaded. About a year ago vice president-elect Joe Biden alarmed Israel by warning it to “get used” to the idea of a nuclear armed Iran. President-elect Obama has repeatedly pledged support for Israel’s self-defense saying a nuclear armed Iran is not acceptable.

Israel has been adopted more and more independent self-defense strategies as the Bush administration winds down. Recent revelations that Obama had accepted major contributions to his presidential campaign from Palestinians as well as confusing reports of entreaties to the radical Hamas group has increased angst and raised the temperature particular among more rabid Zionist elements in Israel. Perhaps the most concerning development has been surveys showing declining interest in and support for Israel particularly among younger American Jews.

How much the current Israel war preparations are political to ensure the new U. S. administration takes the situation with the utmost seriousness is unknown. Regardless it seems unwise not to assume Israel is not deadly serious that it will not allow a nuclear armed Iran.

The betting is that Israel will give Washington DC until about mid-2009 to show it can change Iran’s direction before attacking.

An attack on Iran would invite its counter strike on neighbors and U. S. forces and it would be very difficult to control escalation in the immediate region and keep hostilities from spreading wider. It should be assumed Iran would be vengeful at least temporarily blocking oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz skyrocketing crude oil prices rocking the already shaky world economy.

Hornswoggle (HORN-swog-uhl) verb tr.: To cheat, hoax, or deceive someone.:Of unknown origin.

all Street sources say Robert Rubin, the Clinton-era Treasury chief who as a director at Citigroup is credited with the bank’s move into higher-risk investments, will step down. A Rubin spokesman denied it. The New York Post reports that a federal lawsuit against Rubin and former Citi CEO Chuck Prince accuses the two of orchestrating nothing less than a Ponzi-style scheme to defraud shareholders. The lawsuit says the pair took on trillions in collateralized toxic debt and then, failing to sell them to outside investors, forced them on Citi itself. Then, shareholders argue they cashed out tens of millions in stock in advance of the Citibank stock collapse which wiped out tens of billions in shareholder value.

Citi stock has lost 75 percent of its value since the beginning of 2008. Citi trades now at $7.40. It began the year at almost $30 and in recent years traded as high as $55 a share.

The complaint also names Vice Chairman Lewis Kaden, ex-CFO Sallie Krawcheck (who has since departed the firm), and her successor CFO Gary Crittenden, reported the Post.

Citi denied the allegations.

In a Friday. December 5, 2008 Rasmussen Report poll 76% says bank big wigs. Like Rubin and Prince who knowingly manipulated their bank’s conidition should go to jail. Twenty-two banks have failed so-far in 2008. So far the allegations against Citi’s executives are only civil in nature.

A couple of heels stole a trailer in suburban Detroit and hot-footed away with 1,400 pairs of shoes worth $40,000. The empty trailer was found a couple of blocks away in Detroit.

he widely reported but little analyzed; until now – including my own story — National Intelligence Council report Global Trends 2025, makes frequent references to China and India as rising powers apparently to make it appear the nuclear armed communist dictatorship in Beijing is little different than India — the world’s largest democracy. Some think this is an intentional semantic trick indicative of the work of Thomas Fingar, Ph. D. outgoing National Intelligence Council chairman who Is known to hold skewed views on China according to the Washington Times’ Bill Gertz.

Fingar is most notorious to me for his central role in the now infamous conclusion in the 2007 NIE, that has now been widely discredited, claiming Iran had stopped its uranium enrichment program but failed to mention is almost immediately restarted it. We now know Iran is operating 5,000 centrifuges enough to make numerous nuclear weapons and aspires to operating 54,000.

Critics note that the new NIE report’s melding of China with other states is part of a deliberate effort by liberal intelligence analysts to play down China’s communist system and seek to portray the dictatorship in Beijing as a “normal” nation.

The Global Trends report, supposedly a reflection of the views of 16 U.S. intelligence agencies on the shape of the world in the next 16 years, is the latest in a series of intelligence products that critics say is biased on improperly seeking to portray China as a benign power.

A congressionally mandated intelligence review commission headed by retired Army general John Tilelli, a former commander of U.S. forces in Korea, reported in 2001 that U.S. intelligence suffered from an “institutional predisposition” or bias in its reporting on China. The report was kept secret to avoid upsetting analysts and to protect intelligence bureaucrats from being held accountable for the bias.

Then in 2005, when the intelligence bias on China could no longer be ignored, a group of U.S. intelligence analysts produced a stunning, highly classified report that stated that U.S. intelligence analysts missed more than a dozen Chinese military developments over a period of nearly a decade. The analysts, however, sought to blame intelligence collectors for the failures, angering many in the CIA’s espionage branch.

Gertz’s December 4, 2008 Times article warns president-elect Obama about a former CIA deep-cover spy who says Obama needs to radically reshape what he terms the “dysfunctional” CIA — or face more strategic intelligence failures.

Ishmael Jones, the pseudonym for a former Marine and recently retired CIA case officer, said in an interview that despite intelligence reform efforts in the post-Sept. 11 era, “the CIA bureaucracy has mutated into a living creature that serves its own aims.”

The retired CIA officer, an Arabic speaker and 20-year veteran, stated in his recently published book, “The Human Factor,” that the CIA’s clandestine service should be streamlined and given clear marching orders and more focus on its mission: recruiting and handling human spies while avoiding trivial sources.

In comparison Fingar’s analytic faux pas or maybe F.U.B.A.R. is little more than a sneeze in the pneumonia ward. A friend claims the most dangerous oxymoron in modern time is “intelligence community.”

In these hard times Americans are flocking to the movies, the chief executive of the largest U.S. theater chain said on Wednesday. At the same time SCREEN ACTORS GUILD is organizing a strike against major movie studios and TV networks that critics say is not only tone-deaf but will likely raise ticket prices.

ore years ago than I care to remember I attended a meeting at the Grange Hall near Mt. Pleasant, Ohio, it’s the one across the road from the ancient Quaker Meeting House, there a man in a Sunday suite described to assembled farmers that the “government” was proposing they install methane gas collectors of their dairy cow’s posteriors to reduce air pollution. The man held up a collector and proceeded to try to explain its installation on a cow. The assembled farmers burst into laughter some tipping backwards in their folding chairs literally laughing the bureaucrat from the room.

Nothing happened then but now his descendants at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are proposing an annual $175 fee per flatulent and belching dairy cow; $87.50 per head of beef cattle and $20 per hog to compensate for the livestock’s indelicate behavior.

No, this is not a joke but could soon be the law of the land. The Farm Bureau Federation certainly doesn’t think it’s funny and warns assessing dairy farmers with modest sized herds of milk cows or beef cattle $30,000 to $40,000 will drive milk and beef prices through the roof and bankrupt many small farmers. In-as-much as no other nation has any such idea the Bureau points out this will only mean more imported milk, Beef and pork on a level like we import crude oil.

Now nobody who has spent any time around cows, cattle or hogs will argue that they do not produce and expel copious amounts of gas from both ends. But, exactly what taxing their collective indelicate behavior will accomplish remains an inexplicable mystery not unlike the nincompoop at that long ago Grange Hall meeting. Plus the Farm Bureau wonders how long it will be before EPA bureaucrats will indict chickens, duck and geese for similar gaseous offenses to destroy the earth.

The EPA argues that a 2007 U. S. Supreme Court ruling the motor vehicles produce “green house” gases and by extension so do cows, cattle, and hogs.

James Williamson earned his master’s degree in business administration at Philadelphia’s La Salle University. Then he spent four months on interviews while looking for work troubleshooting electronics, doing technical sales or writing advertising copy. So far – no luck. To make ends meet he’s driving a New York cab and he’s posted his reume’ in its backseat. So far – no luck.

s the new United States administration appears set to withdraw from the region the Persian Gulf states are considering a security agreement with Iran. What and how such an agreement will mean is a vigorous debate but it clearly represents a major strategic shift with big long term impacts.

Gulf Cooperation Council members, including Saudi Arabia; have dropped their objection to a strategic accord with Teheran. That itself is seen as a significant victory for the mullahs in Iran and has set off alarms in Israel and elsewhere.

GCC states have become concerned over the withdrawal of the United States from the region as well as the steady decline in crude oil prices, the source of major weapons programs.

“In the current scenario, we call for working out a mechanism for a security pact that would help the region avert a conflict or arms race that has the potential to spill over into the entire region, thus endangering the ongoing development march of the GCC states,” Saudi Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz, a senior member of the royal family, said.

In a statement, Talal, president of the Arab Gulf Programme for United Nations Development Organisations, said the GCC agreement would focus on non-aggression as well as cooperation in all fields. Perhaps most significant is that the Saudi prince said the GCC must pledge that members would prevent any attack against Iran.

“First, a provision that makes it binding on all GCC states never to allow their land or water territories, and air spaces to be used for any aggression against Iran,” Talal said.

The statement said Iran’s nuclear program has alarmed GCC states. But Talal did not go beyond the call that Teheran must submit to United Nations Security Council resolutions to end uranium enrichment.

“The Gulf region should be free from a catastrophic conflict and arms race at the expense of huge prospects for development and progress,” Talal said. “Second, regional and international guarantees must be in place to restrict use of nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes. There should also be a criterion for enrichment of uranium and guaranteeing observance of it under all circumstances.”

GCC sources said Talal’s call reflected that of Saudi Arabia and most member states. The sources said oil-rich Gulf Arab states were bracing for huge deficits in 2009 amid the sharp decline in prices.

“Nobody in the GCC wants an arms race that we cannot possibly win,” a GCC diplomatic source said. “Iran gains a lot more from [regional] instability than we do.”

Talal said Iran and the GCC states should be prepared to submit to international arms inspections. He said the two sides should also establish hotlines to defuse tension and emergencies.

“There should be guarantees and confidence-building measures between both sides under which they can agree to reliable international monitoring of their military arsenals,” Talal said. “A mechanism for immediate joint consultancy in case of any security incident should also be in place.”

There is a consensus that except by direct military action it is too late to stop Iran from adding nuclear weapons to its arsenal.

GCC members include: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates comprising the regions Arab, oil and Muslim powers.

All Saints Episcopal Church in Pasadena will continue blessing same sex wedding ceremonies. The Reverend Ed Bacon said the only difference will be the actual signing of marriage certificates. For 16-years, All Saints has blessed same sex marriages and began conducting legal same sex marriages in June after the California Supreme Court ruled that gay couples have the right to wed. Since then, the “Pasadena Star” reports the church has presided over 43-legal same sex marriages. Tuesday’s passage of Proposition 8 banned same sex marriages in California.

omorrow is Verterans Day. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Americans have a favorable opinion of the U.S. military, and 45% regard Veterans Day as one of the nation’s most important holidays. The military’s favorability rating is up eight points from a Rasmussen Reports survey for Veterans Day a year ago. Just nine percent (9%) have an unfavorable view of the military, and 12% are undecided.

Only seven percent (7%) say Veterans Day is one of our least important holidays, with 46% rating it somewhere in between the least important and most important holidays. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Republicans say Veterans Day is one of our most important holidays, but just 40% of Democrats and unaffiliated voters agree.

Only 19% say they have served in the U.S. military, including one-third (33%) of men and six percent (6%) of women. Just 15% of Republicans, 18% of Democrats and 25% of unaffiliated voters say they have had military service.

In November 1919, President Wilson proclaimed November 11 as the first commemoration of Armistice Day. World War I hostilities ended at the 11^th hour of the 11^th day of the 11^th month of 1918 although the formal peace treaty was not signed at Versailles until June 28, 1919. Armistice Day became a legal holiday in 1938 celebrating those who served in World War I. In 1954 to recognize those who served in World War II and Korea and the name was officially changed to Veterans Day is still celebrated on November 11^th.after a brief period when it was celebrated on Monday as an accommodation to public employee unions to give them a three-day holiday.

Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi on Friday asked state leaders to block Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposed $4.5 billion in spending cuts and called for additional taxes, including raising the state’s vehicle license fee.

sraeli military sources said Hamas was expected to exploit the power vacuum in Israel and the United States. On Nov. 5, Hamas fired about 40 Kassam-class missiles and mortar shells into Israel. On the same day Israel IDF forces uncovered a tunnel meant for the immediate abduction of Israel Defense Forces soldiers a distance of 250 meters from the security fence of the Gaza Strip, Although Hamas observed a cease fire until the US election it has been preparing for offensive actions for weeks.

The Gaza Strip will become a graveyard if the enemy expands its incursion,” Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said. Referring to helicopter and UAV pinpoint attacks in Gaza. Earlier, according to World Tribune, Hamas issued a statement from military commander Mohammed Deif. Deif, who has spent the last five years underground in fear of an Israeli assassination, warned of attacks on the Jewish state.

Israeli is preparing to repell a Hamas attack from the south and a Hesbollah operation from the north. U. S. President-elect Obama sent an envoy to Egypt and Syria and perhaps elsewhere promising aid and to sell Egypt aadvanced F-16 Fighter bombers.

Some say Obama’s election; his envoy within 24- hours of winning and without benefit of even a security briefing, Hamas’ glee and fear of tepid future U. S. support will likely ensure the election of a more assertive Israeli administration.

An 86-year old man lays terminally ill in a hospital his wife of 65-years at his side. Calling her close he says