CONFLICT

As reported in Russia and Israel, the Russian flagship nuclear missile cruiser Pyotr Veliki [Peter theGreat] is set to dock in Syria. North Korea and Russia are busy signing contracts on defense and nuclear power.

At best, the Russians will collect their deposits before the probable Israeli strikes on Iran and Syria. The presence of the Russian ship serves to complicate Israeli plans for attack, but like the Reagan era attack on Qaddafi’s state, not going to stop it. You may recall that there was a similar cruiser and Soviet aircraft on hand during that mission.

Should the attack not occur, or should it fail, the Russians will be in position to collect handsomely on the demise of Israel and the expansion of the two terrorist sponsoring states.

Russia believes America is about to be propelled into an extraordinary shift toward socialism-isolationism ideas it can exploit.

Russia has intensified its spying on Israel and transferring that intelligence on Israel’s strategic capabilities to Iran and Syria. “(I)f the Russians help the Syrians get information, and the Syrians constantly pass it on to Hezbollah, it is a reasonable supposition that the information gathered by the Russians also reaches Hezbollah’s hands,” Col. Ram Dor, chief of information security in the Israeli military, said.

Russia has been monitoring Israel’s military and vital facilities via land, air and sea assets Russian warships are now routinely basing and staging out of Syrian’s Mediterranean naval base at Tartus that has now been converted to a permanent Russian naval base.

Officials said Russia has increased espionage operations inside Israel. They said Russian agents have been directed to identify and target young officers in the Israeli military and intelligence community. That is particularly insidious because there are more than 1 million Russian speakers linked to the former Soviet Union in Israel. Officials said Russian intelligence tracks emigrants who work in the Israeli military and defense industry and traces family inside Russia the purpose is to bludgeon their support by threatening family members still inside Russia.

The Russian intelligence on Israel is being relayed to the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militia via Damascus. The Syrians share the intelligence that they gather with Hezbollah, and the other way around,” Dor said. “This we know, because we know how to build a mirror-image that shows us what enemy intelligence knows about us.”

At the same time it was disclosed that Syrian President Bashar Assad has ordered the formation of an Iranian-trained praetorian guard to protect him from assassination which would unravel the Syria-Iranian-Russian triumvirate.

Russia’s expansionist agenda is driven by Putin’s Czarist-like personal ambitions funded by surging oil and natural gas income enabling a 23% increase in military spending, and accelerated by his view that America is about to be propelled into an extraordinary shift toward socialist-isolationist ideas that Russia can exploit.

Tehran could reach weapons capacity in as little as six months

Mohamed El-Baradei, head of the Vienna, Austria-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was quoted in the Friday edition of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily as saying that that Iran is one of several countries on the “path” to possessing the ingredients for making a nuclear weapon.

He also said there is “a whole list of countries that posses the ingredients to assemble an atomic weapon in a matter of a few months, that possess fissile material or the technical means to create it.”

Israel says the Islamic Republic could have enough nuclear material to make its first bomb within a year. The U.S. estimates Tehran is at least two years away from that stage.

But David Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security closely tracks suspect secret proliferators has said Tehran could reach weapons capacity in as little as six months through uranium enrichment.

Albright thinks Iran has produced nearly 1,000 pounds of low-enriched uranium, said the report _ close to what Albright says is the 1,500-pound minimum needed to produce the 45-60 pounds needed for a simple nuclear bomb under optimal conditions.

Morale and will of the Pakistani military a serious question mark, and elements openly support the Taliban and al Qaeda, and are unwilling to fight their countrymen.

An unintended consequence of the devastating bombing at the Marriott Hotel in the heart of Islamabad last Saturday, September 20 has been provoking the Pakistani government to talk tough about taking on the Taliban and al Qaeda forces nested in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The latest attack, that killed more than 50 Pakistanis and foreigners and wounded over 270, is being described as “Pakistan’s 9-11.”

Whether or not Pakistan can deliver on its tough talk or not is a matter of considerable debate inside and outside of Pakistan. That could start to be answered soon as Pakistan news sources are reporting major operation have been underway since the 23^rd.

The Taliban / al Qaeda forces are not a rag tag bunch but a well armed force capable of fighting at the battalion level with good communications and weapons that Pakistan admits is often better they their own.

Pakistan has deployed 100,000 troops into the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The morale and will of the Pakistani military and intelligence services remains a serious question mark. Elements of the Inter-Service Intelligence are known to openly support the Taliban and al Qaeda, and portions of the military are either sympathetic to the Taliban or unwilling to fight their countrymen.

The Pakistani government, with its new leader, can rant and rave but unless it’s military has the will that is just worthless nattering.

Pakistan, officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, is bordered by Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in the far northeast. In 1947 it became an independent Muslim state with four provinces and federally administered tribal areas now controlled by radical Taliban and al Qaeda forces.

It is the sixth most populous country in the world and has the second largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia. Originally it was connected with East Pakistan on the other side of India that became Bangladesh in 1971.

During the Soviet-Afghan War Pakistan covertly supported the Afghan mujahideen and even shot down several intruding Soviet bombers.

In 1999, Pakistan was embroiled with India in the Kargil conflict and fought for several months in nearby Kashmir.

India has nuclear weapons detonated its first device in 1974. Pakistan detonated a fission device in 1998 and is believed to have numerous nuclear bombs now making it the only nuclear armed Muslim nation

Iranian President Blames U. S. Military Intervention for Banking Imbroglio

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continued his routine anti-American tirade during his visit to the United Nations in New York City Tuesday adding to his usual lecture his opinion of high finance and ranting about the current U. S. banking imbroglio blaming it on U. S. foreign military exploits.

Hundreds protested Ahmadinejad’s appearance and speech, and the U. S. delegation walked out as he prepared to speak. Before his address he told National Public Radio Iran did not wish confrontation with the U. S. or anyone but that it has to defend itself. Hanging over his visit is Iran’s continued nuclear weapon’s development program; Iran’s threats to destroy Israel, and Israel’s promise to prevent a nuclear armed Iran. Looming over the entire region and world is Iran’s effort at coercion by warning it will strangle oil supplies by blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

On June 29, 2008, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammed Jafari, stated that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would seal off the Strait of Hormuz, thereby wreaking havoc in oil markets.

On July 8, 2008, Ali Shirazi, a mid-level clerical aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted by the student news agency ISNA as saying to Revolutionary Guards, “The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran. If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and U.S. shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran’s first targets and they will be burned.”

In July dozens of US and foreign navys’ ships conducted Operation Brimstone practicing in littoral operations to keep the Strait open. The U. S. and allies would keep the Strait open.

On January 23, 1980 President Jimmy Carter decreed that any effort to close the Persian Gulf would be an attack on America’s vital national interest and repelled by all means including military force.  Practically that means any effort to close the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is the only sea route for Persian Gulf  oil at its narrowest is 21 miles (34 km) wide bounded on the north by Iran and south by Oman Sea traffic move along two 3 mile wide lanes. There was a series of naval stand-offs between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz occurred in December 2007 and January 2008.

The most serious incident was on 18 April 1988, the U.S. Navy waged a one-day battle against Iranian forces in and around the strait. The battle, dubbed Operation Praying Mantis by the U.S. side, was launched in retaliation for the 14 April mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58). U.S. forces sank two Iranian warships, Joshan and as many as six armed speedboats in the engagement.

Putin in clearly banking on the election of an inexperienced U. S. President in Obama he sees as impotent and indecisive.

Russia keeps upping the ante in its retaliatory moves for the greatly expanded U.S. and NATO presence in the Baltic, Eastern Europe, .and Black Sea to support the former Soviet republic of Georgia. On Monday, the two Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack (White Swan) nuclear bombers it sent to Venezuela Sept. 10 carried out a six-hour patrol over the Caribbean Sea.

Putin in clearly banking on the election of an inexperienced U. S. President in Obama he sees as impotent and indecisive.

The fiercely anti-American communist Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was so pleased to host the Tu-160s that he scheduled a personal audience with their crews Tuesday.

RIA Novosti also announced the two bombers would fly back to their home air base in southern Russia from Venezuela’s Libertador Air Base on Wednesday, three days later than their originally announced departure date.

The symbolism was obvious. The United States had infuriated the Russians by sending warships in support of Georgia to the Black Sea, which has been a virtual Russian lake for the past 250 years. So the Russians sent two of their most formidable nuclear bombers over the Caribbean Sea, which has been an American preserve for well over a century.

But the Tu-160 deployments and flights carry a far more ominous message to the U. S. A.: If Russia permanently deploys its Tu-160s in Venezuela, the United States could be at a greater risk than at any time since the darkest days of the Cold War.

The Blackjack is a Mach-2, 1,380 mph, super-long-range Tu-160s can carry stand-off X-555 cruise missiles with a range of 2,000 miles. That means that from a base in Venezuela, they could “loiter” over the Caribbean for 10 or more hours at a time with a capability of firing their Mach 2.8 cruise missiles that are capable of flying around 1,800 mph at sea level and hugging ground contours so their exact flight path could not be intercepted in advance with a range that could hit almost any target in the entire United States.

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has let virtually all its domestic defenses against manned bomber attacks vanish. The Blackjacks would fly well “under the umbrella” of even Patriot PAC-3 and U.S. Navy Standard Missile-3 anti-ballistic missiles, none of which are designed for manned aircraft interception. The cold fact is that the United States currently has no missile defense system capable of knocking down a Blackjack missile attack or of preventing a cruise missile launch unless combat fighter aircraft — which are only a few hundred miles per hour faster than the Mach-2 Blackjacks — can intercept them.

RIA Novosti described the Tu-160 Blackjack as “a supersonic, variable-geometry heavy bomber designed to strike strategic targets with nuclear and conventional weapons deep in continental theaters of operation.”

The Russian news agency cited a Russian air force spokesman as saying the two Tu-160s were equipped only with dummy missiles without warheads.

But, of course, if Tu-160s were to be based permanently at Libertador Air Base, or elsewhere in Venezuela in the future, the missiles they carried might not always be dummy ones. Unspoken is that those airbases are vulnerable to nuclear and conventional weapons attacks by U. S. Airforce and naval aircraft that could render the threat moot.

Russia is playing for time. High oil prices has allowed it to bank a half trillion dollars but its tock market has collapsed losing 51% in value since May. If a flaccid U. S. president is not elected Putin has a whole new kettle of fish to contend with.

Russia has boosted military cooperation with Venezuela and Cuba in recent months

Moscow (AFP) Sept 17, 2008 on the day before Russia nuclear bombers are set to depart Venezuela and Russia warships are still in nearby waters Russia says it could include Cuba and Venezuela into a satellite navigation system originally designed for missile targeting by the Soviet military.

“We discussed the theme of joint use of the Glonass satellite navigation system,” Roskosmos chief Anatoly Perminov was quoted by RIA Novosti news agency as saying, referring to talks with the authorities in Venezuela.

Perminov said similar negotiations had been held with Cuban authorities and that Moscow and Havana had talked “in a preliminary way about the possibility of building a space centre in Cuba with our assistance,” RIA Novosti reported.

Glonass was developed for missile targeting by the Soviet army in the 1980s to compete with the GPS system used by the United States. The project is expected to be completed, with 24 satellites in orbit, by 2009.

Glonass is currently administered by the Russian defense ministry.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin last week boosted financing for the long-delayed project by 1.85 billion euros (2.61 billion dollars). Glonass also aims to compete with the European Union’s Galileo system.

Russia has boosted military cooperation with Venezuela in recent months, reviving memories of tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War in the Caribbean region.

In a move seen as a direct response to US plans to set up missile defense installations in the Czech Republic and Poland, Russia this month announced it was dispatching warships and long-range bombers to Venezuela for exercises, and did so.

I live in what I consider to be the greatest country on earth. Having traveled a bit internationally and having the good fortune to become educated past high school, I’ve always known that growing up middle class in the middle of the 20^th-century in America made me one of history’s most highly favored citizens.

Throughout the ages, few have lived anywhere near as well as even lower-middle-class Americans do. Few have had so many freedoms from the time their country was founded, although some had to fight longer and harder than others for their share, even here.

I say this to let you know that I know I’m lucky. I’m proud to be an American. I was thrilled to discover colonial roots that bind me genealogically to the founding of our nation. And lately I’m worried about how partisanship is tearing apart our sense of country, of being Americans together, of being the United States—and doing so in the name of patriotism.

Divide and Bludgeon

As I prepared for a small-group meeting last night, I was engrossed in a book about how my faith should be leading me and my fellow believers in actively addressing the biggest challenges in the world. (Doesn’t matter which faith. Most of them—at heart, in their purest essence–promote this same mission and share this idealism.)

In the book, the author wrote about the Rwandan genocide, about the mass killings of hundreds of thousands of members of the Tutsi tribe by members of the Hutu majority. Inconceivable horror, so far away. And then I was struck by a parallel.

Tribalism is happening here, in America, in our politics. No, we’ve not moved anywhere near the point of physical genocide. But we have gone beyond partisanship to the point of forming a mass cultural divide based on whether we’re Democrat or Republican, “progressive” or “conservative,” “spiritual” or “religious” or gunning for a theocracy. To me the effects resemble the aftermath of a 9-11-style attack on decency, trust, and communal citizenship.

While visiting Gettsyburg this summer with my family, I was shocked when the most pop culture-oriented of the group and the least interested in history became utterly engrossed in the brilliantly-presented films outlining the bloody days of the key battles. He said, “It just became clear how tenuous it was; how if one general had gotten the orders to attack a little earlier, we could be living in two countries right now.”

It’s beginning to feel that way this election season.

Red States, Blue States, Purple-faced Partisanship

Political party membership is becoming a key element of identity for a lot of Americans. But is our sense of being American becoming secondary to our identities as Republicans or Democrats?

If asked, wouldn’t anyone say that he or she is simply voting for the people he or she believes will help our country the most? Nearly all of us are sincere, even passionate, in our convictions, so why has it become so difficult to see the authenticity in those who disagree with us? It is, after all, quite possible to be sincerely misguided.

Personally, I place the blame squarely on the vicious and underhanded “Wag the Dog”-style machinations of our national political campaigns. No matter which side of the aisle we call home, any one of us who is paying enough attention must now be aware—if only at a visceral level—that we are being manipulated. In a close election, swing voters ultimately have to pick a side, after all, and smear campaigns work. Low-information voters are often swayed by the disinformation arriving in abbreviated form as a few pointed headlines aimed squarely at the attention-deficit crowd.

In a time and a culture where civility and citizenship are ghosts of their former selves, we owe it to ourselves as a nation to step back and get some perspective. To do some research. To ignore the spin and dig for the truth.

Our tribe is America.

The other party is not the enemy. The enemy is the atmosphere of half-truths, manipulation, and outright lies that’s being allowed to permeate the workings of both major parties, drift through the blogosphere and digital setboxes and satellite airwaves to tell us who to trust.

We should resist the forces that preach that politics is black and white, good against evil. And we shouldn’t settle for a political climate that makes an election a zero-sum game. Americans are too valuable a resource. Too much is at stake.

Israel Assembles Top Leaders About Iran

Israel prime minister Ehud Olmert summoned defense minister Ehud Barack and foreign minister Tzipi Livni for an urgent consultation on Iran Wed. Sept. 10, as the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier headed out to the Mediterranean.

America will then have four aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea to four, compared with two Russian warships.

Monday, Iran launched a three-day naval-air-missile exercise to practice defense tactics for its nuclear sites.

Roosevelt will be followed by the guided missile cruiser Monterey; guided missile destroyers Mason and Nitze and nuclear powered attack submarine Springfield with a total of 7,300 sailors and marines aboard.

The U. S. S. Ronald Reagan and its task force engaged in operations in Afghanistan on August 28.