Ivan Risidin
War “Unavoidable”, Lt Gen Yaalon
In a briefing to the Israeli cabinet, Director of Israeli Military Intelligence Brig. Gen. Baidatz dramatically revised the timetable for Iranian nuclear weapons capability. With 1 1/2 tons of enriched uranium already and 4000 centrifuges [no peaceful purpose] whirring the general states that Iran is “on the brink” of weapons capability. As reported by Debka, Lt. Gen. Yaalon stated that “an Israel Iran war seems unavoidable”.
With no power comitting to interfering with their own troops, all major powers, despite helium filled rhetoric at the useless UN, have approved of the coming war by their silence.
Marshall Ivan would add that it is likely that the Iranian networks in Europe and the US will make Al Qaida look like kindergarteners. There will be casualties in the West—but hopefully nothing like an Iranian nuke would present.
Russia : Its What They Are NOT Saying
Russia’s Permanent UN representative Dmitry Rogozin
Russia’s Permanent UN representative Dmitry RogozinRogozin Further commented that he would rather see Russia and the US with Europe devise tough economic sanctions to force Iran to the negotiating table. Putin and Medvedev have made similar comments, but in contradiction–possibly frustration, Putin has also stated that he would rather have “Iran on his border than the US”.
Marshall Ivan concludes that Russia’s statements are no where near as important as what they are not saying. Russia, it seems has already signed off on the Israeli/US attack on Iran. They have collected payment for many Iranian projects, nuclear and defense, knowing full well they will never be allowed completion. The posturing is most certainly for position after the next conflict.
Where It Hurts
Vladimir Putin, speaking to the media stated that “all which was impossible before is possible now”. He further states that US warships are sitting off his coast, but there are no Russian warships near America. He promised the “Izvestia News” reporters that they will be surprised by the Russian response, saying “we will respond where it will hurt America the most—increased nuclear aid to Iran”. Putin. in speaking with Chinese minister Hu and Shimon Peres of Israel recently said that Russia does not want a nuclear armed Iran. BUT, he would rather have “Iran on his border than the USA”.
Noted in a separate article, Izvestia commented that Putin is envious of Medvedev, and is making statements when Medvedev is out of the country. The news service further notes that the west, USA in particular considers Putin still in charge–Medvedev in the shadow.
Medvedev has recently stated that Russia is following its “established Christian principles” in dealingwith Georgia and other nations. “Gott Mit Uns” lives, and threatens.
Gun Rights in Russia !!!
In an interview with “Vesti News” Moscow writer Mikhail Barshevsky defended the right to carry person
al weapons when a “society can not or will not protect its citizens”. The interview was given 9 November of last year, when a crowd conservatively estimated by police at 5000 demonstrated in Red Square. You may note that Russia has been subject to numerous terrorist and mafia inspired killings much as in the Capone days of Chicago. The Moscow opera was taken over by Chechen Muslims as were several apartment buildings exploded.
The interviewer presented the usual case against public firearms, mostly through emotional examples of mass killings at schools in the US. Nevertheless, Barshevsky and his group stated their intention to continue to carry their weapons, legally or not.
Marshall Ivan notes that when Yeltsin defended the Duma against attack, citizens miraculously appeared on the streets with captured Nazi machine guns, modern soviet sniper rifles, anti tank munitions, and explosives of all kinds. This was in a “strictly controlled state”. It appears to this author that some law [US] controlls far better than total unachievable control.
Dissident “Accidental Death” Story Changes
North Ossetian dissident webmaster Yeloev was reported three days ago killed by “accident” while under restraint in a police van. Miraculously, the policeman’s sidearm discharged directly into the temple of Mr. Yeloev. So ended the website “Ingutia.ru” [spelled in the Cyrillic alphabet].
The improbability of this farce was too much for the authorities, who now state to “Izvestia” news that Yeloev died resisting arrest in an airport. Local authorities were reportedly baffled–but not Marshall Ivan !!!
Jules Verne lives and writes for the Russian state news services.
Georgia to Host Israeli Attack Airraft Against Iran
As
reported by the Washington Times and repeated in Israel, Russian raids on two Georgian airfields may have had the aim of disrupting Israel’s coming attack on Iran. Second, the Russians hoped to and may have captured an Israeli unmannned reconnaissance deone full of super secret observation gear.
The use of Georgia would make sense as flying time would be diminished and there is already a considerable Israeli advisory force in Georgia. Of course the Russians would backwards engineer the equipment and pass the data to Iran and Syria.
Marshall Ivan thinks that this will accelerate, along with the fear of an Obama presidency, the attack necessary attack on Iran.
Saudis Approve of Russian Action in South Ossetia.
In a meeting with Putin reported by Russian State controlled “Izvestia”, prince Ben Abdul Aziz confirmed that the Saudi king approved of “the logic of Russian action in South Ossetia”. The prince went on to encourage “two sided expansion in relations” and an increase in future dealings with Roboronexport [Russian arms export]. He said that Saudi Arabia was “now realizing” the benefit of an earlier arms purchase agreement with Russia.
To Marshall Ivan , the Russian bear is looking for a warm water port in the south a la Peter The Great plus control of most of the world’s oil production. Soviet missile cruisers were in the meantime “visiting” Abkhazia.
It is interesting to note that as early as November Putin stated in an interview that he would not allow a NATO buildup in the Black Sea.
Ukraine: 16 Times Military Budget Increase
The Ukrainian defense minister as reported in Russian language “Izvestia” is increasing its military budget from a paltry $2 Billion to $32 Billion in the next year. He stated that “the world situation has seriously changed, compelling us to modernize and rearm.
On the same day a senior unnamed admiralty staff officer admitted to reporters that during the Georgian war the Ukrainian Navy “was not in a condition to block Sevastopol Harbor” as leader Yushchenko had desired.
Ukraine is in a hurry to join NATO. In the Marshall’s opinion, such a move will benefit the west by giving it “teeth” in the east.
Medvedev: Five International Principles
Russian President Medvedev stated in state controlled “Vesti News“ today that his nation will follow five principles in international affairs. In short,”multipolarity”, as he names it, in the world is fine, but unipolar decisions–even when issued by such a “powerful and authoritative” country as the US are unacceptable. Medvedev goes on to say that Russia does not seek conflict with any nation, US or Europe—BUT that it is an unconditional truth that Russian citizens living abroad will have their rights enforced.
He states further that Russia will develop positive relations with America “as feasible”.
The Marshall interprets this as “we will take Abkhazia and Moldova, beware in the Baltic States”. Diplomacy only succeeds to the extent of one’s military industrial might multiplied by its willpower [Clauswitz].
Ray Charles Could See It
Six more Iranian nuclear reactors are to be built, according to Iranian and Israeli [Haaretz] sources. Iran, with an abundance of oil and other power solutions is building more reactors [peaceful purposes ?] just as the facility at Bushehr will come on line later this year with Russian help.
Iran boasted that its fighters can now strike Israel and return without refueling. This in a week that has seen Iran launch a dummy satellite from a new two stage rocket. Other claims have been made about shutting down the Straight of Hormuz–watch for $300 oil– and an implied ability to hit not only Israel but US bases in the middle east. Except for the extra reactors, none of this is new. Informed sources are betting on WAR. The only dispute is when and by what means.
Ray Charles could see this one coming.
Ray Charles Could See It
Six more Iranian nuclear reactors are to be built, according to Iranian and Israeli [Haaretz] sources. Iran, with an abundance of oil and other power solutions is building more reactors [peaceful purposes ?] just as the facility at Bushehr will come on line later this year with Russian help.
Iran boasted that its fighters can now strike Israel and return without refueling. This in a week that has seen Iran launch a dummy satellite from a new two stage rocket. Other claims have been made about shutting down the Straight of Hormuz–watch for $300 oil– and an implied ability to hit not only Israel but US bases in the middle east. Except for the extra reactors, none of this is new. Informed sources are betting on WAR. The only dispute is when and by what means.
Ray Charles could see this one coming.
Sevastopol Harbor “Closed to the Enemy”
Russia asks, “Do the Ukrainians already consider us the enemy”???
This is on a day that Russia has threatened to deploy the Iskandar Missile [see photo] to the Baltic and Syria .
Strategic Independence
The Jerusalem Center For Strategic Affairs has written an outstanding analysis of Russia and the Georgian conflict. Frankly, it sounds like several of the old Marshall’s briefings starting months ago.
The phrase that resounds here at staff central is “strategic independence”. The Israelis and others have learned not to physically rely on US promises of aid. Even Mikhail Gorbachev warned a year ago not to rely on Us promises of aid.
The phrase will take corporeal existence soon, when Israel exercises its strategic independence and attacks Iran by itself.
I will include the link here : http://www.jcpa.org/Templates/ShowPage.asp?DRIT=1&DBID=1&LNGID=1&TMID=111&FID=442&PID=0&IID=2402&TTL=The_Russian-Georgian_War:_Implications_for_the_Middle_East
DESINFORMATSIA: Kremlin Jewish Leader Critical of Georgia
Israe
l’s Haaretz News reports that Boris Spiegel, self acclaimed friend of Putin and nominal spiritual leader is accusing the Georgians in the recent Russian power grab.
The word in Russian for this is an English cognate which truly covers the subject : DESINFORMATSIA. The other applicable phrase is “navesti nenavist’ na vraga”–which literally means “aim hatred at the enemy. If you have ever seen Soviet WW II posters, you will be struck by their effectiveness [cf. my post “Georgia : Stalin’s First Break” includes a good example with translation of the text
The integration of all sources in this affair clearly indicates premeditation. Watch out Azerbaijan, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and eventually Ukraine if Putin is allowed his Sudeten like treasure.
I have include the link to the Haaretz article, interpretation that of Marshall Risidin.
Ukraine For “Homegrown” Anti Missile Radar
Putin 
controlled Vest News reports in Russian today that Ukraine is close to deploying its own antimissile systems “Sevastopol” and “Mukachevo”. It is very interesting to note that Russian authorities state in the article [in Russian language edition] that the systems are of little value to the West.
Interpretation, they are not ready yeat to take on the Ukraine in a Georgian like power grab–not yet.