Richard Cochrane
NOVEMBER 17, 2008
Former eBay chief Meg Whitman and Mitts Romney supporter is mulling a run to replace California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger when he leaves office in two years. If Senator Diane Feinstein runs too as rumors say she might. It could be a real dustup.
One of the most spectacular victories of the war on terror. But, don’t expect to read or hear about it in America’s Main Stream Media. London ’s Sunday Times called it “the culmination of one of the most spectacular victories of the war on terror.” A terrorist force that once numbered more than 12,000, with strongholds in the west and central regions of Iraq, has over two years been reduced to a mere 1,200 fighters, backed against the wall in the northern city of Mosul.
The destruction of al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) is one of the most unlikely and unforeseen events in the l ong history of American warfare. We can thank President Bush’s surge strategy, in which he bucked both Republican and Democratic leaders in Washington by increasing our forces there instead of surrendering.
We can also thank the leadership of the new general he placed in charge there, David Petraeus, who may be the foremost expert in the world on counter-insurgency warfare. And we can thank those serving in our military in Iraq who engaged local Iraqi tribal leaders and convinced them America was their friend and AQI their enemy. Al-Qaida’s loss of the hearts and minds of ordinary Iraqis began in Anbar Province , which had been written off as a basket case, and spread out from there. Now, in Operation Lion’s Roar the Iraqi army and the U.S. 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment is destroying the fraction
of terrorists who are left. More than 1,000 AQI operatives have already been apprehended.
Sunday Times reporter Marie Colvin, traveling with Iraqi forces in Mosul, found little AQI presence even in bullet-ridden residential areas that were once insurgency strongholds, and reported that the terrorists have lost control of its Mosul urban base, with what is left of the organization having fled south into the countryside.
Meanwhile, the State Department reports that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s government has achieved “satisfactory” progress on 15 of the 18 political benchmarks “a big change for the better from a year ago.”
Things are going so well that Maliki has even for the first time floated the idea of a timetable for withdrawal of American forces. He did so while visiting the United Arab Emirates , which over the weekend announced that it was forgiving almost $7 billion of debt owed by Baghdad, an impressive vote of confidence from a fellow Arab state in the future of a free Iraq. But where are the headlines and the front-page stories about all this good news? As the Media Research Center pointed out last week, “the CBS Evening News, NBC Nightly News and CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 were silent Tuesday night about the benchmarks “that signaled political progress.”
“Don’t-ask-don’t-tell” policy allows unmanned U. S. Predator aircraft to attack suspected terrorist targets in rugged western Pakistan federally administered tribal areas while both countries look the other way. It has been going on since August.
The Pentagon’s missile defense chief Trey Obering said Wednesday he looked forward to reporting to president-elect Barack Obama that the US anti-missile system is “workable,” and to setting the president-elect’s mind at ease.
Obama raised eyebrows by denying he had assured the Polish President that the missile shield would go forward and then further qualifying that by wondering if it was “workable.” Obama’s foreign policy advisor Dennis McDonough said Obama “made no commitment” on US plans to install a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, under an August 14 agreement.
“His position is, as it was throughout the campaign, that he supports deploying a missile defense system when the technology is proved to be workable,” McDonough said.
Obering, who will resign his post at the end of November, warned that abandoning the missile shield in central Europe “would severely hurt our ability to protect our forces in that region.” He says timing was a vital issue. “We can’t wait until we see the Iranians fly an ICBM,” or intercontinental ballistic missile.
The shield — endorsed by NATO in February — is aimed at fending off potential attacks by so-called “rogue states” such as Iran, and is in no way aimed at Russia.
Russia sees it as a threat to its own security. On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would abandon plans to deploy missiles on the EU’s doorstep in Kaliningrad if the Obama scraps its plans to base part of the missile shield in Europe.
Polish lawmakers have yet to ratify the US missile defense deal while the Czech government has called for a delay in a final vote on its radar agreements until Obama’s inauguration on January 20.
The proposal is to base 10 interceptor missiles in Poland plus a radar facility in neighboring Czech Republic to complete a system already in place in the United States, Greenland and Britain. Russia has seized on it as a way to show Europe it has the power to get the U. S. to back down and that it has become a unreliable ally in any case.
Europe, that depends on Russia for most of its natural gas, is quavering because of its dependency fueled in large measure by questions about the future direction of the U. S.
NEWSWEEK magazine is taking orders for a “commemorative” issue about its candidate Barrack Obama.
A November 6, 2008 analysis by Jonathan Rynhold for The Begin-Sadat Center (BESA) says Obama’s plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq and reconcile with Iran and Syria in concluding that the forthcoming Obama administration was likely to clash with the next Israeli government.
Obama’s preferences regarding Iran and Iraq have serious implications for Israel,” the report, titled “President Obama and the Middle East Challenge,” said.
If the U.S. were to leave Iraq unstable, with the perception being one of American weakness and failure, it will strengthen the resolve of all radical forces in the region that threaten Israel and its de facto allies in the Arab world, such as Jordan.”
The report said Republican loser Sen. John McCain marked the “more comfortable option for Israel.” Rynhold envisioned tense relations between Obama and any Likud-led government in Israel. Likud chairman Binyamin Netanyahu has been leading in most polls in the race for Israel’s next prime minister.
“If Netanyahu does form the next Israeli government, there could be difficult times ahead,” the report said. “This has happened previously, when Shamir and Bush Senior, as well as Clinton and Netanyahu, clashed in the 1990s. But this time Netanyahu’s position would be weaker.”
The report said Israel could no longer count on Republicans in Congress to temper Obama’s policies in the Middle East. Instead, Obama would be supported by a Democratic-controlled Congress and a new Jewish lobby, “J Street,” that would seek to undermine the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee.
Although not included in the BESA Report recent U. S. surveys find a plurality of U. S. Jews unconcerned about Israel.
The report said the Obama administration could retain several leading advisers long regarded as hostile toward Israel including: former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Sen. Chuck Hagel, who could be pitted against the more pro-Israel Dennis Ross and Daniel Kurtzer.
“…(T)his could lead to bureaucratic in-fighting and consequently policy incoherence, as has frequently occurred in the past.”
The report envisioned a Middle East crisis at the onset of the Obama administration. Rynhold said Obama’s foreign policy would be hampered by his lack of experience and dependent on his managerial and decision-making abilities.
“The central challenge for Obama in the Middle East is neither democratization nor securing a comprehensive resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict — though those are worthy long term objectives — but rather the maintenance of a stable pro-American balance of power in the region,” the report said. “First and foremost that means dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue.”
The report was completed before it became known that president-elect Obama had sent envoys to Egypt, Syria, and radical Sunni-Muslim group Hamas or the appointment of as Chief of Staff. Emanuel’s father was born in Jerusalem and was a member of the Irgun, a militant Zionist group which operated from 1931 to 1948 during the British Mandate of Palestine. Whether or not these contemporary events would have changed Rynhold analysis is unknown.
Activists say if the California Supreme Court does not overturn the voter approved ban on homosexual marriage for the second time they will oput he issue back on the ballot in 2010. Scattered acts of violence against individuals and churches who supported the ban continue.
According to a World Tribune article datelined, November 12, 2008 from Abu Dhabi — Iran, Qatar and Russia the top gas producers in the world have reconvened their talks on the formation of a natural gas cartel.
The three countries began an energy summit on Nov. 12 in the Qatari capital of Doha. Officials said the key issue was an examination of the technical details required for the formation of a gas cartel modeled on OPEC.
Last month Qatar, Russia and Teheran agreed to examine the establishment of a gas cartel. Iran and Russia have pressed for the cartel that they say would “monitor” the gas market. It is hard to deny its real purpose is to control natural gas and drive up prices.
The oil ministers of Iran and Qatar are attending the Nov. 12 session. A week ago there was discussion of Lybia joining the troika. It is not known why it is not represented at the meeting.
World natural gas reserves are estimated at 6,315.770 trillion cubic feet (TCF);North America has 286.842 tcf; Europe 175.652 tcf; Eurasia 1,900.265 tcf; Middle east 2,609.319 tcf; Africa 514.328 tcf, Central and South America 260.095 tcf and Asia & Oceana 531.809 tcf.
Of that the cartel members control 57% of those gas reserves including: Qatar 904.064 tcf; Iran 988.820 tcf, and Russia 1,688.755 tcf. Russia is believed to control perhaps another 20%. Russia’s state-owned GASPROM supplies most of Europes natural gas imposrt and recently reduced prices so as not to complicate its economic uncertainties. According to Pravda, Russia’s state run news service it is allowing natural gas prices rise to market levels in Russia proper hurting many average Russians.
Republican Rep. Dan Lungren of Gold River announced today that he will challenge Ohio Republican Rep. John Boehner for the position of House minority leader. Lundgren apparently wants to bring his successes with the California Republican Party to the nation.
Thursday the International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed its 2009 crude oil price forecast to $80 from $110 saying imminent recession is strangling demand in rich countries and crimping emerging economies. It said that despite recent heavy price falls to the $60 range, prices on futures contracts still hovered around $85 for a 40 gallon barrel.
The IEA, the oil monitoring and strategy arm of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, said that “given the economic contraction, a lower price will only have a very limited effect upon oil demand.”
“Oil demand is in a tailspin,” the IEA said. “But there is scant consensus on the slowdown’s scale and duration.”
The IEA said that “while we lack a crystal ball,” a recently announced Chinese economic stimulus package “could help avert the first global demand contraction since 1983.”
The “current squeeze” had widespread repercussions, the IEA noted, saying: “Slowing oil sector investment in 2009 sows the seeds of a sharp tightening in market fundamentals if major projects are delayed.”
It warned that the impact of such a slowing of investment would be felt in three to five years’ time “after economic recovery regains a foothold.”
Some studies predict crude oil production topping out in 2011-2013 but others doubt it predicting continued growth for some time to come.
Led by California, 41 states are now in financial trouble, and many of their leaders are looking to Congress to bail them out. To paraphrase Barry Goldwater having government watch your money is like have you dog watch your food.
We are very profitable in China,” said Henry Wong, a Shanghai-based spokesman for General Motors the biggest US auto maker, and he confirmed GM wants to continue investment and expansion there. “I will not speculate on where money will come from for future investment of speculative nature. Right now it’s too early to talk about that,” he said.
He told AFP that various investment projects GM had committed itself to in the past were “all on target and on track.”
These included expansion projects for existing plants in the cities of Qingdao and Yantai, both in east China’s Shandong province, he said.
“We are not withdrawing or holding back any investment in China,” he said.
He declined to comment on reports in the local media that it planned to increase its 34-percent stake in SAIC-GM-Wuling, a joint venture that produces commercial vehicles.
On Monday, GM chief executive Rick Wagoner said the US auto maker was in such dire financial straits that it needed to line up a federal aid package before president-elect Barack Obama takes office in January.
The expansion and speculative investment comments have skeptics of the proposed government loan or equity purchases concerned that U. S. taxpayer money can wind up helping hire more foreign workers. Others say the taxpayer money is a giant welfare program for the United Auto Workers.
Recent analysis show that the cost of one hour’s manufacturing for GM in the U. S. is about $74 more than twice Toyota’s domestic costs and several times more that other manufacturers.
Regardless it is politically expedient to prop up GM’s domestic operations. The theory is credit will loosen; the economy will improve and fuel costs will average in the $2.50 per gallon range until at least 2010 all helping car and truck sales. A bugaboo are various proposals to pile new sales taxes onto vehicles sales such as one floated in California to increase sales taxes by 1.5% and increase already high vehicle license fees to patch up its $30 billion estimated budget deficit.
The FBI is investigating whether vandalism to Mormon temples and meeting houses, incidents believed to be linked to Proposition 8 activists, are hate crimes.
Sources reporting to World Tribune in an article from Cairo, Egypt says fighting between opposition forces and the regime of Col. Moammar Qaddafi has spread. Libya has imposed a news black out as thousands of government troops are rushing to several cities.
Qaddafi regime sources claims the fighting is a tribal conflict but Libyan opposition sources said tribes and other unemployed young men were battling regime forces in at least two cities in the North African state. Call it a revolution.
Government sources say, “Skirmishes between youths from Al Tabu and Zawia tribes evolved into larger battles in which several cars and houses were burned,” the Libyan daily Al Watan said on Nov. 7 before the blackout was imposed. .
Opposition sources said the fighting between tribal members and the regime began in the southeastern Libyan city of Kufra in early November and has now spread to the streets of Benghazi the second largest city.
30% unemployment, a dysfunctional economy and even the recent courtship by Russia has raised the level of discord that has now boiled over to street fighting.
Libya is governed by a so-called Jamahiriya (a state of the masses) in theory, governed by the populace through local councils; in practice, an authoritarian state with Qaddafi as its dictator. It has a unworkable amalgam of Italian and French civil law and Islamic law. It is without a Constitution, or political parties so effective opposition is almost impossible and chaotic.
95% of its export income is from crude oil accounting for 60% of private sector wages. Theoretiocally it has one of the highest per capita income in Africa but little of its trickles to the poorest and even its 45 billion barrel oil reserve allows little hope for a better life except for the elite.
Libya has claimed more than 32,000 sq km in southeastern Algeria and about 25,000 sq km in the Tommo region of Niger in a currently dormant dispute; various Chadian rebels from the Aozou region reside in southern Libya.
At this writing it is unknown if foreign fighters or influence are involved in the current conflict.
Chevrolet is the best selling car in the world. Not in the U. S. but in the world. GM is wildly profitable in China and South America. Bureaucrats and unions are strangling it in U. S.
U.S. officials said the Treasury Department would block short-term money transfers in the United States, a method used by the Teheran regime. The so-called U-turn” bank transfers were designed to move money through the United States en route to offshore banks. “Given Iran’s conduct, it is necessary to close even this indirect access,” Treasury Undersecretary Stuard Levey said.
Under the measure, Treasury would outlaw the processing of U-turn transfers by U.S.-licensed banks. Officials said the restriction would prevent most transfers by non-Iranian offshore banks for Iranian entities. “This regulatory action will close the last general entry point for Iran to the U.S. financial system,” Treasury said.
Officials said Iranian banks and the Teheran government were increasingly using U-turn to avoid U.S. sanctions. They said Teheran recruited Asian, African and European banks to handle Iranian foreign transactions.
The Bush administration has determined that Iranian banks were aiding Teheran’s missile and nuclear program. Treasury has already imposed sanctions on such Iranian state-owned banks as Melli, Mellat, Saderat, Sepah, Future Bank and the Export Development Bank of Iran.
The latest measure, announced on Nov. 6, stipulated that no U.S.-licensed bank could conduct a U-turn transaction for Iran. Officials said the exception would be the transfer of Iranian funds to families or humanitarian relief. The United States contains a small but wealthy Iranian community, mainly located in Los Angeles
“Allowable funds transfers under specific or general OFAC [Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control] licenses would include: payments arising from over-flights of Iranian air space; legal services; intellectual property protection; and authorized sales of agricultural products, medicine, and medical devices to Iran,” Treasury said.
A Fairfield, California priest who had asked for a car with several Obama for President stickers to be removed from the church parking lot a week ago apologized today to churchgoers for his outburst.
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larm klaxons are clanging at the National Rifle Association (NRA); Illinois State Rifle Association (ISRA), and among hunters and gun owners over question 59 on the 63-question application to work in the Obama administration. The question in the miscellaneous section asks: “Do you or any members of your immediate family own a gun?” and demands to list details.
It is unclear whether owning a gun would disqualify an applicant or not but the question seems to show a distaste for and a desire to “weed-out” people who own a firearm. After all if it was not important in the vetting and selection process why would it be included?
ISRA issued a statement that “as an Illinois State senator — voted for SB1195, which included a provision calling for gun owners to be registered in the same manner as sex offenders.”
“[A]s this litmus test shows, they have every intention of putting together an administration that is hostile to firearms ownership and to Second Amendment rights,” said NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre.
President-elect Obama’s disparaging comment about people clinging to their guns and Bibles inflamed many and this disclosure last week fanned the blaze and suspicions.
The day after election gun sales spiked across America as citizens scrambled to buy guns before stiffer regulations and even efforts to ban private ownership. In 1996 during his run for the Illinois State Senate, Obama told non-profit organization Independent Voters of Illinois that he supported a ban on the manufacture, sale and possession of handguns, a de facto national annulment of the second amendment. During the campaign he said, Americans have a right to bear arms.
But, he qualified that in April 2008 Obama stating, “As a general principle, I believe that the Constitution confers an individual right to bear arms. But just because you have an individual right does not mean that the state or local government can’t constrain the exercise of that right.”
Obama cosponsored bills to limit gun purchases , supported the 2008 D.C. gun ban, voted against allowing persons who had obtained domestic violence protective orders to carry handguns for their protection, and has consistently supported measures against concealed carry.
Obama is also a board member of the Joyce Foundation, which funds gun control groups in the U.S.
His appointment of long time anti-gun crusader Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff has also deepened concerns of 2nd Amendment advocates.
The U.S. Supreme Court, in District of Columbia v. Heller (June 26, 2008), protected the pre-existing individual right to possess and carry weapons in a case that overturned Washington DC’s ban on gun ownership.
November 10, 2008 Conservatively Speaking
All Saints Episcopal Church in Pasadena will continue blessing same sex wedding ceremonies. The Reverend Ed Bacon said the only difference will be the actual signing of marriage certificates. For 16-years, All Saints has blessed same sex marriages and began conducting legal same sex marriages in June after the California Supreme Court ruled that gay couples have the right to wed. Since then, the “Pasadena Star” reports the church has presided over 43-legal same sex marriages. Tuesday’s passage of Proposition 8 banned same sex marriages in California.
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omorrow is Verterans Day. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Americans have a favorable opinion of the U.S. military, and 45% regard Veterans Day as one of the nation’s most important holidays. The military’s favorability rating is up eight points from a Rasmussen Reports survey for Veterans Day a year ago. Just nine percent (9%) have an unfavorable view of the military, and 12% are undecided.
Only seven percent (7%) say Veterans Day is one of our least important holidays, with 46% rating it somewhere in between the least important and most important holidays. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Republicans say Veterans Day is one of our most important holidays, but just 40% of Democrats and unaffiliated voters agree.
Only 19% say they have served in the U.S. military, including one-third (33%) of men and six percent (6%) of women. Just 15% of Republicans, 18% of Democrats and 25% of unaffiliated voters say they have had military service.
In November 1919, President Wilson proclaimed November 11 as the first commemoration of Armistice Day. World War I hostilities ended at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918 although the formal peace treaty was not signed at Versailles until June 28, 1919. Armistice Day became a legal holiday in 1938 celebrating those who served in World War I. In 1954 to recognize those who served in World War II and Korea and the name was officially changed to Veterans Day is still celebrated on November 11th.after a brief period when it was celebrated on Monday as an accommodation to public employee unions to give them a three-day holiday.
Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi on Friday asked state leaders to block Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s proposed $4.5 billion in spending cuts and called for additional taxes, including raising the state’s vehicle license fee.
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sraeli military sources said Hamas was expected to exploit the power vacuum in Israel and the United States. On Nov. 5, Hamas fired about 40 Kassam-class missiles and mortar shells into Israel. On the same day Israel IDF forces uncovered a tunnel meant for the immediate abduction of Israel Defense Forces soldiers a distance of 250 meters from the security fence of the Gaza Strip, Although Hamas observed a cease fire until the US election it has been preparing for offensive actions for weeks.
The Gaza Strip will become a graveyard if the enemy expands its incursion,” Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhoum said. Referring to helicopter and UAV pinpoint attacks in Gaza. Earlier, according to World Tribune, Hamas issued a statement from military commander Mohammed Deif. Deif, who has spent the last five years underground in fear of an Israeli assassination, warned of attacks on the Jewish state.
Israeli is preparing to repell a Hamas attack from the south and a Hesbollah operation from the north. U. S. President-elect Obama sent an envoy to Egypt and Syria and perhaps elsewhere promising aid and to sell Egypt aadvanced F-16 Fighter bombers.
Some say Obama’s election; his envoy within 24- hours of winning and without benefit of even a security briefing, Hamas’ glee and fear of tepid future U. S. support will likely ensure the election of a more assertive Israeli administration.
An 86-year old man lays terminally ill in a hospital his wife of 65-years at his side. Calling her close he says When I was drafted in World War II – you joined the nurse corps to be by my side. When I was wounded you were by my side until I recovered. I started four businesses. They all failed. You were by my side. Now I am dying and you are by my side. I have come to an important conclusion – you’re bad luck.
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ovember 4, 2008, was the 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election to select the President and the Vice President of the United States. It was the first time since 1952 that neither an incumbent president nor vice president was on the ballot.
122.7 million voted almost exactly the same as 2004 despite wild predictions about turnout. The much touted “youth vote” (18-30) simply didn’t show up reaching about 11% as it did in 2004 with 64% going to Obama. Blacks did increase their vote from 11% to 13% with 93% going to Obama. White men went to McCain while women of all ethnicities went to Obama.
Obama spent $638 million and McCain $360 million and when other candidates are added more than $1 billion was spent, and that was a record.
During one touching moment during Barack Obama’s acceptance speech, Oprah was crying; Jesse Jackson was crying; Hillary was crying . . . in fact, she’s still crying.– Leno
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November 6, 2008 UPI article authored by Ariel Cohen and Lajos Szaszdi adds perspective to my previous article describing Russia’s ambitions and action in the Arctic. Only two weeks ago Russia staged the largest military exercise since the Cold War off the coast of Alaska deploying a nuclear submarine, strategic bombers and warships and conducting live fire operations. The supposition then was Russia was about to lay claim to big parts of the arctic and begin to develop its massive oil, natural gas, methane hydrate clusters and large quantities of valuable minerals deposits.
Moscow has submitted a claim to the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea to an area of 460,000 square miles of the arctic – an enormous area the size of Germany, France and Italy combined
”The arctic is quickly re-emerging as a strategic area where vital U.S. interests are at stake. The geopolitical and geo-economic importance of the arctic region is rising rapidly, and its mineral wealth will likely transform the region into a booming economic frontier in the 21st century. The arctic coasts and continental shelf are estimated to hold large deposits of oil, natural gas,” says the article.
Russia is moving rapidly to assert its national interests by projecting military power into the region and by using diplomatic instruments such as the Law of the Sea Treaty. Russia made a show of planting its flag on the arctic seabed in August 2007.
“While paying lip service to international law, Russia’s ambitious actions hark back to 19th-century statecraft rather than to 21st-century law-based policy and appear to indicate that the Kremlin believes credible displays of power will settle conflicting territorial claims. By comparison, the West’s posture toward the arctic has been irresolute and inadequate. This needs to change,” the Ariel Cohen and Lajos Szaszdi work says.
In August 2007, resumed regular air patrols over the Arctic Ocean. Patrolling Russian bombers penetrated the 12-mile air defense identification zone surrounding Alaska 18 times during 2007. Since August 2007 the Russian air force has flown more than 90 missions over the Arctic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The Russian navy has and is expanding its presence in the arctic for the first time since the end of the Cold War. And an official statement says. “We have a number of highly professional military units in the Leningrad, Siberian and Far Eastern military districts, which are specifically trained for combat in arctic regions.”
On July 14, 2008, the Russian navy announced it had “resumed a warship presence in the arctic.” include the area of the Spitsbergen archipelago that belongs to Norway. Russia does not recognize Norway’s right to a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone around Spitsbergen. Russia deployed an anti-submarine warfare destroyer followed by a guided-missile cruiser armed with 16 long-range anti-ship cruise missiles designed to destroy aircraft carriers.
The United States, Canada, Denmark and Norway — the leading arctic NATO members — must take Russian ambitions seriously. While a major military confrontation has a low probability today, the arctic is emerging as a new Cold War flashpoint, reminiscent of the 20th-century tensions in the region. Russia sensed an opportunity to successfully press an inexperienced new U. S. President, and get what it wants taking back what it lost in the Reagan era.
(Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies and international energy security, and Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D., is a researcher in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation.)
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n November 4, 2008 Russia threated to deploy conventional warhead missile on the Polish border to curb Washington’s defense shield. President Dmitry Medvedev’s decision to set up Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad territory wedged between Poland and Lithuania — announced just as Obama was elected — immediately raised “serious worries” at NATO and signals Russia will test the new President. Medvedev said the move would neutralise the security threat posed by the US shield which will link 10 interceptors in Poland to a radar in the Czech Republic by 2013-2014 and is aimed at countering “rogue states” like Iran. As reported here the Czechs had delayed final approval until after the US election so Russia already has something in its favor.
The deployment might raise new tensions between Russia and NATO — whose biggest and most powerful member is the United States — it would not, of itself, significantly change the military balance of power. Without a strong U. S. commitment Europe and NATO are paper tigers.
Analysts differ over how the future US administration will respond to the move.
“If they think that the United States will give up the idea of deploying their anti-missile shield, they’re barking up the wrong tree,” said Francois Heisbourg, special advisor at the Foundation for Research and Security (FRS) in Paris.
Certainly US Democrats have never been as enthusiastic as President George W. Bush’s Republicans toward this vast and costly — roughly eight to nine billion dollars a year — expansion of the defense shield into Europe.
“Obama is extremely sensitive to anything that might portray him as someone who is easy to intimidate”, because of his lack of international experience, Heisbourg noted.
Andrew Cuchins, at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, Moscow’s “public relations” error must not be allowed to drive the wedge deeper between Russia and the United States right now. “A failed diplomacy with Russia is not workable,” he said.
“If we don’t convince the Russians we are taking these concerns into account, (there will be) no way to negotiate on armaments control and proliferation,” he said.
He also said it was vital “to convince the Iranians that Russia and the Americans are serious about cooperating.”.
Contrary to most cooperative arguments is Vice President-elect Joe Biden, notorious for his big mouth and anti-Russian views, lamented in his nomination speech acceptance speech in August a U. S. “failing to face down Russia.” And at a major foreign policy speech in Cincinnati on Sept. 25, Biden said Russia was as much of a threat as Iran.
European leaders are generally pro-American and anti-Russian and infatuated with Obama left-liberalism, youth, dynamism, change, and ethnic diversity. They see Russia as politically reactionary and as a threat to their most cherished ideals thinks John Laughland is a British historian and political scientist and the director of studies at the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation in Paris. Who also said, “The division of the European continent between East and West, so useful for American geopolitical strategy, is likely to continue.”
Western Europe applauded Reagan’s success in collapsing the Soviet Union but almost immediately returned to a Euro-centric posture generally aschewing closer ties or commitments with Washington DC. The Bush defense shield initiative has received tacit support but little more.
Russia’s sabre-rattling in Europe, the Middle East, Indian Ocean, South America and in the Arctic is fair warning that it will not be backing down.
Amid 230,000 job loses in October government added 23,000 employees
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ednesday Obama, before even receiving his first security briefing, sent his senior adviser Robert Malley to Egypt and Syria to outline his policy on the Middle East. Reports in World Tribune say he promised continued civil and military aid to Cairo and to sell them sophisticated F-16 fighters. “The tenor of the messages was that the Obama administration would take into greater account Egyptian and Syrian interests,” the aide said, and “Obama’s message is that he strongly supports a Palestinian state.” Israel has previously expressed concern over sophisticated arms sales to Egypt. Last Fall Israel purchased nearly one hundred advanced F-16.
Simultaneously Syria has moved tanks, artillery, and commando units into battle positions on the Israeli-Lebanon border. Analysts said Obama would probably confront a Middle East crisis soon after entering office in January 2009. They said the most imminent crisis would be that of Iraq as well as the confrontation between Hamas and the PA. Both supported his election.
On Wednesday (Nov. 5), Hamas fired more than 35 Kassam-class missiles from the Gaza Strip into Israel in retaliation for an Israeli military operation the previous day. At least three people in the Israeli city of Ashkelon were injured.
Israel did not publicly comment on the Obama mission but according to the Jerusalem Post urged him not to meet with Iran as he has promised to do. China Set To Buy GM - Chrysler Top ...
Al-Qaeda is reported to be preparing to open a third front on the Horn of Africa to challenge the US efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan and likely deflect efforts from its efforts to take over the Pakistani government in hope of getting access to its nuclear weapons.
On Thursday Secretary of State Rice was in the region and said there would be no peace accord now.
Protest continue around California by losers of Tuesday vote to Constitutionally ban homosexual marriage in the state. At least three lawsuits have been filed in an effort to have the courts overturn the voters for a second time.
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ith the U.S. economy facing the worst outlook in three generations, it isn’t hard to figure out where the next administration will focus most of its attention and about the only thing worse would be a nuclear attack. While that possibility has been with us since the dawn of the nuclear age, it has grown worse as nuclear weapons have spread. Iran and North Korea have nukes and al-Qaida has targeted and takeover of Pakistan to grab its nuclear arsenal, and Russia is increasing its capabilities. America faces more unpredictable nuclear danger than ever before.
There were more nuclear warheads during the Cold War but, we didn’t have to worry about unpredictable characters like Kim Jong Il, the leader of North Korea, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran. Russia and China were deterred by M. .A. D. Mutual Assured Destruction the threat of overwhelming retaliation, Americans could convince themselves that they were safe. Not now says Loren B. Thompson is chief executive officer of the Lexington Institute, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank that supports democracy and the free market.
He says, “Who really understands the thought processes of Kim Il Sung’s ne’er-do-well son, or the Islamic nationalists who one day might rule Pakistan? Even if they are rational — which is assuming a lot, based on past behavior — they still might be accident prone or given to miscalculation in assessing U.S. behavior. So deterrence the way U.S. governments used to practice it is a declining franchise, at least when it comes to the growing club of nuclear arrivistes popping up around the world.”
He thinks there really is no alternative to missile defense the new administration will inherit programs capable of defeating the kind of arsenals nuclear upstarts such as North Korea possess.
Those include the missile-defense capabilities of Navy Aegis-class destroyers. They are useless against an all-out Russian strategic attack, but they can cope with most of the other threats we face today.
The problem is tomorrow, new kinds of threats, such as maneuvering warheads that will make it increasingly difficult to achieve interception once warheads have separated from rocket boosters and released penetration aids such as decoys. Plus, a potential enemy is not deterrable by MAD – because they may be. A defensive response that means hitting missiles early in their trajectory — either before boosters cut off — boost phase — or between cutoff and warhead release — ascent phase.
The U.S. Missile Defense Agency has been funding several programs that could intercept hostile missiles in boost or ascent phase including:
· Kinetic Energy Interceptor, an agile, high-acceleration system that can get close to launch sites because of its mobility;
· The Airborne Laser, which will be able to strike lofting missiles above the clouds at the speed of light using a laser from hundreds of miles away, and
· The Network Centric Airborne Defense Element, an inexpensive modification of the main air-to-air missile carried on U.S. fighters that could be ready to intercept enemy missiles by the end of the next president’s first term in office.
Other options exist. The cost of these programs is so modest, and the threat to the United States from emerging nuclear actors is so great, that the new administration needs to quickly figure out how to keep them going, regardless of what happens to the economy in the years ahead.
That could mean deeper cut in other programs since Mr. Obama has pledged severe cuts in defense. A misstep would leave the U. S. population vulnerable over the coming decade, and if wrong a million dead and dying Americans even from a rogue attack.
The Redskins lost their last home game before the Presidential election and accurately predicting a lose for the party in the White Housee.
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orty percent of U.S. voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his new role as president-elect. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove. The majority of Americans believe relations with China are important, most do not think the economies of the two countries are very dependent on one another.
64% of Americans disagree with the notion that what is good for China’s economy is good for the U.S. economy. Just 15% think the opposite is true according to a new Rasmussen Report poll..
Some worry about the high level of Chinese investment here as the United States goes through a difficult financial period. Sixty-three percent (63%) of investors do not believe that what is good for the Chinese economy is good for America’s economy.
While adults from all parties agree that Chinese relations are important, Republicans are slightly more likely than Democrats and unaffiliated voters to disagree with the idea that what’s good for our economies is closely intertwined.
In the past, Barack Obama, now the president-elect, has referred to China as a “force to be reckoned with” and has demanded that the United States take a harsher stance on China’s currency practices and the current trade imbalance between the two powers.
Most adults (69%) consider China neither an enemy nor an ally but somewhere in between. While 15% of Republicans consider China to be an enemy, only nine percent (9%) of Democrats agree. With memories of the Cold War fading into the past, men and women under age 40 are more than twice as likely to consider China an ally than those older than 40.
As the Christmas season rapidly approaches, most adults (63%) are more concerned with the price and quality of products than where the products are produced. Twenty-eight percent (28%) put more emphasis on where products are produced.
Thirty-six percent (36%) think all toys made in China should be banned after numerous health dangers have arisen due to the county’s poor quality control standards, but 43% oppose such a ban. A plurality of women (43%) of women favor a ban on toys from China compared to 32% who oppose it. Twenty-five percent are undecided. Men by nearly two-to-one oppose a ban.
Forty-seven percent of investors (47%) oppose a ban versus 34% who favor it. Non-investors are closely divided on the issue.
Sixty-four percent of Americans disagree with the notion that what is good for China’s economy is good for the U.S. economy. Just 15% think the opposite is true. Some worry about the high level of Chinese investment here as the United States goes through a difficult financial period. Sixty-three percent (63%) of investors do not believe that what is good for the Chinese economy is good for America’s economy.
Forty percent (40%) of U.S. voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his new role as president-elect. Thirty-two percent (32%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a net rating of eight on the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Approval Index.
Colorado voters reject measure to bar state affirmative action programs.
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ussia’s introduction of the RS-24 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile in 2009 will be the most important phase in the renewal of the Russian Strategic Missile Force after the adoption of the Topol-M. This is the first time in post-Soviet Russia that a new ground-based multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle — MIRV — equipped missile system will be adopted by Russia’s military.
The new missile should have a range of 6,600 miles or more, and multiple nuclear warheads are most likely to have a yield of between 150 and 300 kilotons each.
Aside from the warheads, the RS-24 carries missile defense penetration systems, hindering enemy detection and interception, which makes the new missile a valuable asset amid the deployment of U.S. global missile defense.
It can be either be silo-based or mobile version, which would increase the Russian Strategic Missile Force’s versatility. With the RS-24 entering service, the structure of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces in the coming decade looks clear. Along with the Topol-M, the new missile will form the backbone of the Strategic Missile Forces, their numbers totaling up to 250 and 60, respectively, by the end of the next decade.
Additionally, by 2020 several dozen Topol and UR-100 NUTTH intercontinental ballistic missiles will remain in service. A new heavy missile is also expected to replace the RS-20 Voevoda ICBM. All in all, the Strategic Missile Forces would include about 300 to 350 missiles of various types with 800 independently targetable warheads.
The backbone of the Russian Naval Strategic Nuclear Force will be liquid-fueled RSM-54 Sineva ICBMs installed on six 667BDRM nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, which will have their lifecycle extended into the late 2020s, and cutting-edge solid-fuel RSM-56 Bulava ICBMs on 955/955A submarines.
The Russian navy plans to commission eight missile submarines of the above-mentioned class to replace the 667BDR submarines. By 2020 the Russian navy most likely will have between 12 and 14 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines carrying between 192 and 224 missiles with 800 to 900 warheads.
Russian strategic aviation will go on with the employment of the Tupolev Tu-95MS — NATO designation Bear — and the Tupolev Tu-160 White Swan — NATO designation Blackjack — bombers, as the new advanced strategic bomber will not enter service before 2020. The balance in bomber class numbers is likely to change, however, with Tu-95 Bears down to between 40 and 48 from the current 68, and Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjacks up to between 22 and 24 from the current 16.
Therefore, before the end of the next decade, the total potential of Russia’s nuclear triad is estimated to be between 1,600 and 1,900 warheads. Is it a big figure? On the one hand, with the given deployment of U.S. missile defenses, this number of warheads doesn’t seem so. On the other hand, the rapidly increased defense penetration capability of Russian nuclear weapons will make this inventory sufficient to inflict unacceptable damage to an attacker, whoever it may be.
(This article is adapted from RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)
OPEC Oil Cost Causes, Contortions, Convulsions And Consequences
(”Y)ou should pay more for oil. Let’s say ten times more.” Shah of Iran 1973 comments when a barrel of oil was selling for $10.
“The prices at this time, being affected by the financial crisis, (are) verylow,” OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said. “We have to bring the prices up.” The 13 member cartel cut production 1.5 million barrels a day over the objections of Iran and Venezuela who demanded greater cuts. The cartel’s current production ceiling is 28.8 million barrels a day although actual production is around 29 million. So defacto the cut was closer to 2 million barrels a day if OPEC can reign in “cheaters.”
Despite the cuts that are to take effect November 1 crude prices tumbled Friday and a gallon of gasoline fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 2008. The Oil Price Information Service said prices have room to drop another 20 to 30 cents per gallon and predicted oil prices falling to $50 a barrel, even though he believes prices will eventually stabilize between $70 and $90.
The U.S. Department of Transportation’s reports the largest monthly decline in miles driven in 66 years. Americans drove 5.6 percent less, or 15 billion fewer miles, in August 2008 compared with August 2007 — the biggest single monthly decline since the data was first collected regularly in 1942. That follows declines of 10 billion miles in May,
12 billion in June and more in July.
The cartel signalled willingness to reduce production again before yearend if these cuts do not raise per barrel prices. In London, November Brent crude fell $3.87 to $62.05 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. At the same time the U. S. dollar has been increasing in value compared to other currencies.
Thirty-five years ago on October 15, 1973 the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced an oil embargo “in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military during the [Yom Kippur] war.” OAPEC declared it would no longer ship oil to the United States and other countries if they supported Israel in its conflict with Syria, Egypt and Iraq.
The targeted countries responded with a wide variety of new, and mostly permanent, initiatives to contain their further dependency. The 1973 “oil price shock”, along with the 1973–1974 stock market crash, have been regarded as the first event since the Great Depression to have a persistent economic effect.
OPEC consisted of thirteen countries, including Iran, seven Arab countries, plus Ecuador, Indonesia, Nigeria, Angola and Venezuela. OPEC had been formed on September 14, 1960 at the Baghdad conference. Its members demanded a larger share of oil company revenues but it had little teeth or cohesion and in any case had no wy to enforce its production quotas and edicts.
On August 15, 1971, the United States pulled out of the