Polls

It is no surprise that my mind is preoccupied with feisty ladies. The biggest one, of course, is tropical storm Fay who will be passing close to my home later today. Unlike the three hurricanes which went right over my roof during a 6-week period in 2004 this one will be more ladylike. As of this morning, Fay is taking her time as she dawdles up through Florida leaving a trail of minor wind and rain damage.

The other feisty ladies are four groups I happened to find while surfing the internet. I would look for these ladies to be raising their voices next week in support of the feistiest lady of the land, Hillary Clinton. According to The Stiletto, these different groups are now all coming together into one group, The New Agenda, to promote a variety of women’s issues.

It is more interesting, however, to look at the individual groups. I think the largest group is PUMA, which stands for Party Unity My Ass. Ever since Obama won the Democratic Primary, Howard Dean and Barack Obama have been continuously lecturing that all Democrats must now come together as one party. The name of this pro-Hillary group pretty much sums up what these women think about that!. As Hillary supporters they are demanding a roll call of votes during the DNC Convention next week to remind everyone how many votes Hillary did have and just how close Obama came to losing plus they wanted Hillary to have a prime time slot for her speech.

I Own My Vote is a group of Hillary supporters who argue that their votes do not belong to any party or candidate and that they will vote however they like. See a trend here? In fact their website http://www.iownmyvote.com/ would make a McCain staffer proud. They are also demanding a roll call of votes during the DNC Convention to remind everyone how close the race was etc.etc.etc.

Just Say No Deal appears to be a group of PUMA bloggers who are demanding a roll call of votes to remind everyone blah blah blah. Together 4US is a group of 8,739 women who have signed a pledge requesting that the DNC Convention have a roll call of votes yadda yadda yadda. You get the picture.

Four different groups of women, all furious with the Democratic primary, all continuing to support Hillary and not only wanting Hillary to be recognized during the DNC Convention but to remind Obama that he just barely won. For many, they are not only pro Hillary but have become anti Obama as evidenced by their stinging rhetoric in their websites and by their “NOBAMA” signs. Apparently some of these women have reached the tipping point where they are so angry with their party that they are actually voting for McCain. This is making an impact as the polls have been showing that Obama is not doing as well as expected in the “white women” group.

Now all these pro Hillary groups are merging together. Tropical Storm Fay might be causing havoc this week but it sounds as if these other women might do the same during the DNC Convention . I think that Howard Dean just might have his hands full if these women come out in force in Denver. I also wonder what would happen if they all start to chant for Hillary, especially if they do so while Obama is standing by himself in that stadium. Fay may have moderately high winds and even throw off some tornadoes but nothing will come close to what Dean and Obama might have to face as they are reminded of that oh so true statement: Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned…

Gas Prices Become Top Issue

Forty-four percent (44%) of Democrats think Clinton should be named as Obama’s Vice Presidential running mate. That’s down from 51% immediately after Obama clinched the nomination. Just 24% of unaffiliated voters think Clinton should be on the ticket while 52% disagree. Just 37% of all voters nationwide think that Hillary Clinton wants Barack Obama to win the White House this November. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 33% disagree and say that Clinton does not want an Obama victory. Thirty percent (30%) are not sure.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of voters want the feds government to get “actively involved in efforts to reduce the price of gas and oil.” The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey also found that 58% believe the most effective way is to provide financial incentives that will encourage private companies to find solutions. Just half as many (30%) believe that it would be more effective for the government to conduct its own research for developing alternative energy sources.

By a 70% to 20% margin, Republicans believe that providing incentives to private companies is the most effective approach. Democrats are more divided on the question, but 50% of those agree with the Republicans while 38% disagree and believe that government conducted research would be more effective. Unaffiliated voters, by a 54% to 30% margin, also agree that providing incentives for private companies is the way to go.

McCain’s call for a $5,000 tax credit for those who buy zero-carbon emission cars is favored by 44% and opposed by 39Only 31% of Republicans support this approach while 54% are opposed. Democrats favor the concept by a two-to-one margin. A narrow plurality of unaffiliated voters are also supportive.

McCain’s proposed $300 million prize to whoever can develop an automobile battery that would leapfrog existing technology and reduce dependence on foreign oil is favored by 51% and opposed by 33%. Including 50% of Republicans, 48% of Democrats, and 58% of those not affiliated with either major party who support it.

When survey participants were asked about these proposals, John McCain’s name was not mentioned and they were not identified with any candidate or political party. When his name is attached Democrats say they are opposed; Republicans and unaffiliated voter opinon doesn’t change.

Barack Obama has called for increased regulation of energy traders and speculators. That approach is supported by 47% of voters and opposed by 21%. Just 39% of Republicans like the idea along with 51% of Democrats and 52% of unaffiliated voters. As with the McCain proposals, Obama’s name was not mentioned in the question about regulating traders and speculators.

An earlier survey found that 62% favor drilling for offshore oil, 56% favor spending $150 billion to develop renewable green energy resources, and 51% agree with McCain on the need for more nuclear plants. Another survey found that just 47% oppose nationalizing the oil companies and only 52% believe oil companies should be allowed to keep profits from the development of alternative energy sources. Both Californians and Floridians favor offshore drilling.

Since gas prices have topped $4 a gallon, energy topics have become a central issue for Election 2008. McCain and Obama remain in a virtual dead heat with Obama ahead in likely Electoral College votes.

Obama still holds a six-point advantage over McCain, 50% to 44%.

Obama has clearly received a modest bounce since clinching the nomination. A friend says Obama could be an axe murderer slaughtering children on an altar and the main stream media would ignore it. The ELECTORAL COLLEGE count has not shifted al all stuborly sticking at 200 for Obama and 189 for McCain and the balance leaning to and fro. 270 electors are needed to win the White House.

Republicans are about to be put on the political endangered species list. During the month of April, 41.7% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats. Just 31.6% said they were Republicans and 26.6% were not affiliated with either major party. This is the third straight month Obama’s team has enjoyed a double-digit edge. on Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.

On Monday McCain and Barack Obama were tied at 45% each. When it comes to the economy, 47% of voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama. Obama is trusted more by 41%. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey also found that, when it comes to the War in Iraq, McCain is trusted more by 49% of voters. Obama is preferred by 37%. McCain has an even larger edge—53% to 31%–on the broader topic of National Security. Obama enjoys a 43% to 39% advantage when it comes to government ethics and reducing corruption. McCain has a 44% to 38% advantage on taxes. These results are little changed from a month ago.

Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina , South Dakota and Utah have petitioned California’s Supreme Court to delay implementing it ruling allowing same sex marriages. All except Florida and New Hamphire have constitutional provisions banning such homosexual marriages . Each State would have to determine whether or not they would recognize such marriages likely setting off a maelstrom of litigation.

Governor Schwarzenegger says he supports same-sex marriage putting him at odds with a majority of Califoirnians.That and the state’s inability to act in a fiscally sound way have torpdoed his once sky-high job approval ratings sending him crashng to earth.

If a ballot measure is certified Californians will vote on in November amending its Constitution to ban such marriages the whole thing could be moot. The ballot measure appears ready to be put on the ballot and right now it would pass.

Nationwide a May 21-25 Pew Research poll found Americans oppose same-sex marriage by a 49-38% margin.

Also in California enough signatures have been gathered to require abortionist to notifiy a minor child’s parents before performing an abortion. Right now an abortionist can abort a minor’s fetus without telling the parents. Parents and others say their parental rights are abused and parents have been faced with paying for medical complications because of insufficient and some say even criminal lack of after care. The measure could also be on the November ballot and would be passed according to recent polling.

It is about time for the quadrennial appearance of the latter-day hysterics to reemerge to rant about ending the Electoral College in favor of an array of schemes most often in the name of “fairness” or “modernity” but almost always without even the most feeble notion of its what or why. The story involves the Founders considering several approaches that contrary to popular myth and argument never included taking the selection of a President from the hands of the great unwashed masses ala “Super Delegates” as some assert. In fact nothing could be farther from the truth.

Several ways of electing President were proposed including: having Congress do it (that was rejected for fear of corruption, political pandering, and foreign interference through Congress and risking upsetting the balance-of-power among the Legislative, Executive and Judicial branches.); others wanted state legislatures to do it and that was rejected for some of the same reasons; a direct vote was rejected from a fear “favorite sons” would dominate, and big states would simply overpower the smaller, and finally there was the Committee of Eleven that emerged in the Constitutional Convention proposing an indirect election of the President through a College of Electors.

That indirect election can be likened to the Roman Catholic Church’s College of Cardinals selecting the Pope. The original idea was for the most knowledgeable and informed individuals from each State to select the President based solely on merit and without regard to State of origin or political party. That was a permutation of the Centurial Assembly system of the Roman Republic. Under that system, the adult male citizens of Rome were divided, according to their position, into groups of 100 (called Centuries). Each group of 100 was entitled to cast only one vote either in favor or against proposals submitted to them by the Roman Senate. Proponents like it because after all it worked OK for over a thousand years.

In its original shape the Electoral College States were the Centurial Assembly assigned one elector per Senator (always two regardless of the state’s size) and one per member of the House of Representatives and that was parceled out based on population determined in the decennial census. By the way that was based on a compromise achieved among big and smaller states of how to apportion Congress. Each state could figure out how to select electors and that made states happy because they didn’t want the Federal government interfering in their business.

Congressmen and federal employees were specifically forbidden from being electors and electors were required to meet in their own states and not together. They had to vote for two one who could not be from their state. Those votes were sealed and send to the President of the Senate who open and read the totals out loud and whoever got a majority plus one was the President and the next highest became Vice President. If nobody got a majority the House of Representatives voted on the top five candidates with each state’s delegation getting only one vote. If that failed the Senate voted to break a tie among the top two again with the second place becoming vice President.

It worked for four elections and until political parties formed – something the founders hope to avoid. In 1800 Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr (both Democratic-Republicans) took 36 votes in Congress to pick Jefferson President, and a lot of backroom horse trading and bad blood. The 12^th Amendment was hastily passed in 1804 requiring each elector cast one vote for President and one for Vice President. There have been myriad statutory changes since. But, it was the excesses, chaos, and paralysis of direct democracy during the French Revolution that solidified the Electoral College system as a workable compromise to see the nation deteriorate into such chaos.

It is imperfect

• 1824: John Quincy Adams received more than 38,000 fewer votes than Andrew Jackson, but neither candidate won a majority of the Electoral College. Adams was awarded the presidency when the election was thrown to the House of Representatives.
• 1876: Nearly unanimous support from small states gave Rutherford B. Hayes a one-vote margin in the Electoral College, despite the fact that he lost the popular vote to Samuel J. Tilden by 264,000 votes. Hayes carried five out of the six smallest states (excluding Delaware).
• 1888: Benjamin Harrison lost the popular vote by 95,713 votes to Grover Cleveland, but won the electoral vote by 65.
• 2000: Al Gore had over half a million votes more than George W. Bush, with 50,992,335 votes to Bush’s 50,455,156. But after recount controversy in Florida and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Bush was awarded the state by 537 popular votes. Like most states, Florida has a “winner takes all” rule. This means that the candidate who wins the state by popular vote also gets all of the state’s electoral votes. Bush became president with 271 electoral votes.

The Electoral College is therefore a barrier, or a weighed, voting system that is designed to give more power to the states with more votes, but allows for small states to swing an election thereby ensuring the absolute fairness for all Americans the Founders craved and quested to achieve. It is interesting that that this flies in the face of the so-called landed class and gave rise to the aphorism “you can’t vote by acre.”

Democrats continue to lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. States with 111 Votes are “leaners,” and states with 38 Votes are Toss-Ups. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House. Twelve states with 149 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4). To see state-by-state results (Click here) .

Tuesday’s California Supreme Court ruling allowing homosexual marriage virtually assures that the issue of amending the State’s Constitution will be on the ballot, and the state will be further sundered along religious and ideological and geographic lines. California’s coast are liberal bastions but almost everyone who does not live along the coast trend conservative.

Opponents of same-sex marriage promise to immediately file legal briefs arguing to delay the 30-day effective date ordered by the court permitting same-sex marriages. Observers say it is a toss-up whether they are successful. But, within hours opponents began reporting intensified interest in, contributions to, and support for amending the State’s Constitution.

Perhaps the biggest remaining debate among opponents is whether to put such an amendment on the November Presidential General election ballot or require a special election. In either case it would be contentious - opposition to same-sex marriage runs very high in the state, and only a bare majority is required to but a Constitutional ban into effect.

Proponents promise to fight a Constiutional amendment but given public opinion that will be a steep hill to climb because opposition runs in excesss of 62% and in some polls over 68% say they oppose same-sex marriage.

According to a rasmussen Poll released Thursday forty-six percent (46%) of America’s Likely Voters favor a federal gas tax holiday this summer. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 42% are opposed and 12% are not sure. Most voters who earn more than $75,000 a year oppose the gas tax holiday. Most who make less than $60,000 a year favor that policy change. Among those make less than $20,000 a year, 62% favor the gas tax holiday while only 11% are opposed.

McCain proposed suspending the 18 cents a gallon federal tax and Hillary supports it. Obama opposes it.