Desent Over Obamacare

Deep divisions linger on health care (Washington Post)

President Obama and the Democrats are still struggling to win the battle for public opinion. (Jim Young - Reuters)

Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters now favor the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. With the exception of bounces following nationally televised presidential appeals, that’s the highest level of support measured for the legislative effort all year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of voters finds that 49% are opposed to the plan.

Intensity is still stronger among those who oppose the push to change the nation’s health care system: 25% Strongly Favor the plan while 39% are Strongly Opposed.

Since July, support has generally remained between 41% and 46%. Last week, the effort was supported by 45% of voters. Two weeks ago, it was supported by 42%.

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll of individuals 18-years and older but not necessarily voters shows Americans deeply divided over the proposals under consideration and majorities predicting higher costs ahead.

According to the Post-ABC poll Americans continue to support key elements of the legislation, including a mandate that employers provide health insurance to their workers and access to a government-sponsored insurance plan for those people without insurance.

Over the past few months, public opinion has solidified, leaving Obama and the Democrats with the political challenge of enacting one of the most ambitious pieces of domestic legislation in decades in the face of a nation split over the wisdom of doing so. In the new poll, 48 percent say they support the proposed changes; 49 percent are opposed.

The difference in voter and non-voter opinion in these “battling polls” is insignificant.

Whatever the outcome of the health-care debate, it will have a powerful influence in shaping the political climate for next year’s midterm elections.

The Post/ABC poll finds 61% support the House bill provisions that contains a highly controversial provision prohibiting abortion coverage for those insured under a new public insurance plan as well as those who received federal subsidies to purchase private insurance. That support for barring coverage for abortions for those receiving public subsidies flips if private funds were used to pay for abortion expenses, the numbers flipped. With segregated private money used to cover abortion procedures, 56 percent say insurance offered to those using government assistance should be able to include such coverage.

The Post/ABC poll provides ammunition for both advocates and opponents of the proposed “reform” of the nation’s healthcare. For opponents, a clear area of public concern centers on cost — 52 percent say an altered system would probably make their own care more expensive, and 56 percent see the overall cost of health care in the country going up as a result.

Neither poll reports the views of seniors who face a reported $500 billion in Medicare cuts but other polls show intense dislike for covering most of “Obamacare” by cutting Medicare.

There has been a small but significant increase in the number (now 37 percent) who anticipate their care deteriorating under a revamped system, putting that number in line with opinion in July 1994, just before President Bill Clinton’s health-care reform efforts fizzled.

Among those with insurance, three times as many continue to see worse rather than better coverage options ahead (39 to 13 percent), and fewer than half of those who lack insurance see better options under a changed system. Six in 10 see it as “very” or “somewhat” likely that many private insurers would be forced out of business by a government-sponsored insurance plan, a potential result that GOP leaders frequently warn about.

But reform proponents have other findings to bolster their case. Two-thirds of those surveyed support one of the basic tenets of the reform plan, a new requirement that all employers with payrolls of $500,000 or more provide health insurance coverage for their employees or face fines. Critics say that is a bad idea in the face of high unemployment and is like rolling a log in front of business.

As in previous polls, a majority supports a government-sponsored heath insurance plan to compete with private insurers, although the percentage supporting the general idea has slipped slightly over the past month to 53 percent. Support for the scheme jumps to 72 percent when the public plan is limited to those who lack access to coverage through an employer or the Medicare or Medicaid systems.

While Americans overall are divided on reform legislation, the Democrats have made some progress among at least one key group. Support among senior citizens, while still broadly negative, is up 13 points since September to 44 percent.

Seniors have also tilted back toward Obama when matched head to head with congressional Republicans on dealing with health-care reform, helping the president to a 13-point advantage over the GOP on this issue.

Looking toward next year’s midterm elections, 25 percent say they are more apt to back a candidate who supports the proposed health-care changes; 29 percent are less likely to do so. More, 45 percent, say the vote will not make much of a difference. Independents are nearly twice as likely to be swayed away from rather than toward a candidate who supports the changes (31 percent to 17 percent).

The Post/ABC poll gives Obama high marks nearly 10% points betters than Rsmussens daily tracking poll of voters. But, Obama appears to have very short coattails. Plus, there are also evident signs of an anti-incumbent mood in the new survey, which would disproportionately hurt the majority Democrats next fall should those numbers hold.

Most see the country as headed pretty seriously off on the wrong track and half of all Americans say they are inclined to look around for someone new to support for Congress; just 38 percent are inclined to reelect their member of Congress. These numbers are similar to those from November 1993, one year before Republicans took back control of the House and Senate and close to those from May 2006, six months before Democrats re-captured the Congress.