Israel Election Consequence Clear As Mud

Livni Must Form Coalition Government Or Call National Elections

Tzipy Livni has evidently has just become head of Israel’s Kadima party (pending finalization of the most narrow election results as voter refuted polling results) and has a chance, at least, to form a moderate government that will pursue the Palestinian peace process.

Tzipy Livni  - Tzipora Malka “Tzipi” Livni (Hebrew: ציפורה מלכּה “ציפי” לבני‎) was born  July 8,1958 in Tel Aviv, Israel. She served as a lieutenant in the IDF and worked for the Mossad intelligence organization for almost two years, acting as a “house sitter” for a safe house in Paris. She resigned in August 1983 to marry and finish her law studies. She graduated from the Bar Ilan University Faculty of Law, and practiced public and commercial law for ten years. She lives in Tel Aviv with her husband and their two children.

She was elected to the Knesset in 1999. After the Likud assumed power in 2001, Livni was appointed Minister of Regional Cooperation, and then was Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Minister of Immigrant Absorption and Minister of Housing and Construction. On  October 1, 2005, she was appointed Minister of Justice after several months acting in that position and then served as Foreign Minister. On 4 May 2006, Livni became Deputy Prime Minister and retained the position of Foreign Minister, while resigning her post as Minister of Justice.

Livni escaped virtually unscathed from the massive wave of public criticism that followed the Second Lebanon War, She had led the quest for a diplomatic solution, though UN Secuirty Council Resolution 1701, obtained about a month of fighting, was not much different from the offer made by the Lebanese in the first week of the war. Critics of the resolution, which has allowed massive rearming of the Hezbollah blame Livni for that.

Pre-election opinion surveys predicted that Livni enjoyed a safe lead over rival Transportation Minister and former Defense Minister and IDF Chief of Staff, Shaul Mofaz, and exit polls seemed to confirm a decisive victory. All those polls were wrong and Livni won by less than 1%. If Livni succeeds in forming a new government, she will be Israel’s second female Prime Minister, after Golda Meir (1898-1983).

Livni faces two choices: a.) try to form a coalition government or b.) go to national  elections. She’ll likely at least try the former but it is uncertain she can accomplish it in a meaningful way. Embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he’ll resign if Livni can form a new government, and only if - Israeli’s are tired of Olmert’s legal troubles and that give Livni an edge.  If an election is held the Likud party led by Benjamin Netanyahu and its potential right-wing coalition partners would likely win a majority based on opinion surveys.

Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Persian: محمود احمدی‌نژاد, mæhmu-d-e æhmædi-neʒɑd threw sand in the gears again saying that Israel would not survive. Next week Ahmadinejad will speak at the United Nation’s General Assembly in New York City while pro-Jewish forces protest. About the only thing Israeli’s agree on is that Iran can not be allowed to build nuclear bombs that it appears closer than ever to doing.

Last week it was revealed that Iran was modifying missiles to carry nuclear warheads. Those missiles are known to be able to reach Israel.