Electoral College Votes Still Close - Swing State “Swinging”

Debates Loom Ever Larger

A Rasmussen Report poll as of September 14 in five critical “swing” states show McCain ahead or the races tied. New state polling from Missouri has helped move that state from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, McCain now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama is ahead in states with 193 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247. 270 Electoral votes are needed to become President.

Internals show interesting facts worth watching.

•  Roughly one-in-five voters say they could still change their mind before voting. This large number of potentially persuadable voters places enormous importance on the debates which begin a week from Friday.
• Ohio voters are less certain of their vote than those in other states. Thirty percent (30%) in the Buckeye State say they could change their mind.
• McCain continues to be viewed more favorably-and trusted more– than Obama.
• The number who would not be comfortable with Obama as President is at 40% or 41%
• The number not comfortable with a President McCain ranges from 33% to 36%. This is consistent with national polling data released today showing that more voters believe McCain is prepared to be President.
• Voters are generally more comfortable with the idea of a President Biden than a President Obama. The number uncomfortable with the idea of Biden in the Oval Office ranges from 26% to 33%.
• Voters are less comfortable with idea of a President Palin than a President Biden.
• In fact, Palin’s numbers are closer to Obama’s than Biden’s. The number uncomfortable with a President Palin ranges from 38% to 45% in the five states polled this week.
• The Republican support for McCain is quite stable. The modest changes from week-to-week can generally be found in changes among Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
• Obama has the edge among unaffiliated voters in two states, McCain in two, and they are even in one. Nationally, McCain has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.
• In Pennsylvania, there was a three point decline in the number of undecideds along with a two point increase in support for McCain.
• In Ohio, there was a three point increase in the number of undecideds along with a three point decline in support for McCain.
• In Colorado, Nader’s support when up three percentage points while Obama’s went down three.
• Economic issues are the top issue in all five states with national security matters a distant second.