POTUS Race Tied Up As GOP Gets Twin Bounce - Convention and Palin.
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Obama 14% Lead Among Women Halved
McCain is chipping away as Obama’s convention “bounce”, most of his gains have come among women voters. Obama still leads 51% to 44% among women, but that seven-point edge has been cut in half from the fourteen point lead Obama enjoyed last Tuesday. Most all of that is due to Sarah Palin’s pick as VP and the splendid job she did last week with her acceptance speech. In fact we are right back where we were before either convention, i.e., 46% for Obama and 45% for McCain. The trend is toward McCain-Palin and away from Obama-Biden.
McCain leads by 3% among men, little changed in recent days. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% for and 28% against respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 57%.
Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her which is remarkable given the pummeling she has suffered by main stream media. Biden has disappeared from the national conversation leading some pundits to observe it is a two-to-one contest against Obama. Others are saying Palin should debate Obama.
The Electoral College count currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes. Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 57.1 % chance of winning in November. That has been trending toward McCain.
The Rasmussen polls are conducted by telephone nightly among 1,000 likely voters nationwide and compiled on a three-day rolling average.