Russia’s Costly Georgian Victory Questionable.

Russia did not score a complete or easy victory over tiny Georgia.

According to an analysis by The StrategyPage.com and other sources Russia did not score a complete or easy victory over tiny Georgia. Russian troops beat the Georgians on the ground because of superior numbers, and more combat experience. The Russians got that experience by fighting a successful campaign just across the border, in Chechnya.

In addition to regular Russian troops, commandos and airborne “volunteers” some of the “Russian” troops were apparently Chechen paramilitary units.

The Georgian troops had received training and weapons from the U.S. and Israel over the last few years. But the U.S. training was mainly for peacekeeping operations. This was of limited use against experienced Russian counter-terrorism troops. A small number of Georgians 37,000 man armed forces received special operations training, but not enough of these troops were available to defeat the Russian military million man force.

The Georgians did better in the air and at sea, even though they were greatly outnumbered there as well. Georgian warplanes shot up the Russians pretty badly (killing the commander of Russian ground forces, for example) before the Russians overwhelmed the Georgian air force. In the process Russia lost at least four aircraft destroyed, and a number of others badly damaged.

At sea, Georgian missile boats hit several Russian warships, which had not been equipped with equipment, or crews, that were capable of dealing with this kind of threat. Two Russian warships were damaged and had to withdraw from the area. Within a few days, however, Georgia’s miniscule navy and air force were destroyed, largely by the much larger Russian air force.

The Russians ran a large scale Information War campaign, shutting down Georgian access to the Internet for several days, and blanketing the world media, and Internet, with Russian spin on what was going on in Georgia and why.

The Russians apparently wanted to intimidate the Georgians into electing a less pro-West government. There are some Georgians who are more inclined to do whatever the Russians want, but it’s unclear if this faction has a majority of the votes yet. Some Georgians believe that the Russians are still angry about Josef Stalin, a Georgian who killed more Russians than Adolf Hitler. Stalin is still a hero to Georgians.

Russia has now shown itself to be a bully. Russia has been trying to annex two parts of Georgia that border Russia, and this war was all about showing Georgians that Russia would rather fight than give up this land grab. The UN was created to deal with this sort of thing, but Russia is doing well, so far, intimidating the UN into inactivity.

Georgia is not a clear win for the Russians, but, short-term, many things appear to be going their way. Long term, things are rather more murky. Europeans have been reminded that the Russian bully they have feared and despised, for so many centuries, is back in town. Russia threatened a nuclear attack on Poland and dire consequences - it may make good on its threat to base long range nuclear capable bombers on Cuba. Then there’s the Ukraine that kicked the Russian Black Sea fleet out of its ports and with its 50 million population would not be a push over, and with U. S. and allied help would bloody Russia’s nose if not break its jaw.

That could have interesting consequences down the road.